More than three decades ago, the legendary Warren Buffett returned a call to a fact-checker, explaining what he meant when he used the term “elephant-bumping affairs.” Buffett was gently deriding talkathons such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) and CEO summits hosted by business magazines.
I was then working for Fortune magazine in New York and was the fact-checker Buffett called. I couldn’t help smiling as he remarked that these summits were where large egos went to bump into others of their tribe.
That early lesson from a man who was a role model of self-deprecating humility for me made me sceptical of Davos, where the WEF holds its annual huddle. This was only heightened when I attended the WEF’s satellite summits in India and China. These reinforced what Buffett said, but with a corollary: Such events make it possible for busy people to take a brief holiday while seeming busy.
But, this year’s WEF was different. There was plenty of news, ranging from US President Donald Trump’s disavowal of the use of force to take over Greenland to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s overpraised speech calling out US hegemony.
There has been a change, of course, in leadership at the WEF itself with the resignation last April of founder Klaus Schwab after whistleblowers reportedly accused him of research manipulation and financial impropriety. Schwab and his wife were cleared of the charges, but Larry Fink, BlackRock founder and WEF co-chair, now seems in control. Fink mused about moving it from Davos to Dublin or Detroit. Surely Delhi, at least in the interest of alliteration, deserves to be on that list, but he only mentioned Jakarta in Asia.
At the centre of this circus, inevitably, was Trump. He walked back his threat to invade Greenland and impose higher tariffs on Nato allies opposed to that idea.
Davos and its aftermath are all about predictions, so let me make one. January 2026 will be remembered as the point when Trump’s authority started to unravel. The term TACO (‘Trump Always Chickens Out’) has never seemed more apt. He tends to change tack when the US stock market tumbles, which appeared to be the proximate cause for his rollback of outlandish tariffs announced on Liberation Day in April as well as his decision to sound more conciliatory on Greenland. Machiavelli’s much quoted line that a ruler is better feared than loved might have to be reworked for the Age of Trump.
Like the MGM lion that roars at the start of a film from this studio, Trump often comes across like a parody US president, adapted for the small screens of smartphones.
While the hypocrisy of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was at least once dressed up with highfalutin talk about installing democracy, US attacks on Nigeria and Venezuela in January came without much attempt at justification. Subsequent meetings in the White House with oil majors to coax them to invest in Venezuela only underlined that this was a resource grab. The chief of Exxon, however, termed the country “uninvestable.”
January does not just mark the first anniversary of the most tumultuous US presidency ever, but also a rise in TACO readings, with many arguing that the words of a leader who made his name as a TV show host are mostly bluster.
Overshadowed at Davos by Trump and Carney was Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. He referred to US-China trade talks as a prime example of cooperation and called for fair treatment of Chinese companies overseas. This is rhetoric more muted than the bluster from the US, but even more potent.
Ahead of lecturing Davos about middle powers needing to stand up to the US hegemon, Canada’s Carney had reached an agreement with Beijing that involves slashing tariffs for the first 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) sold in Canada from 100% to 6%. This week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is slated to visit Beijing to put UK-China relations on a different path.
Perhaps major middle powers such as Canada, the UK and even India should read closely the details of China’s current five-year plan; Beijing seeks to dominate the commanding heights of green technology such as batteries and EVs, while ceding little space to developing countries to build market share in low-end electronics, toys and garments. China’s share of global container shipments reached 37% for the first three quarters of last year, while its trade surplus for the full year hit $1.2 trillion.
Its response to US tariffs has been to decimate manufacturing in developing countries. The head of an industry body in Jakarta estimated that the textile sector alone in Indonesia had lost 300,000 jobs to cheap Chinese imports.
The trouble is that Trump’s mostly successful attempt to control the news cycle pushes China’s hegemonic behaviour to the sidelines. Robin Harding, Asia editor of the Financial Times, spent time in Beijing in November asking economists and business leaders what the world could sell China. The answers were mostly patronising. Soyabeans and iron ore, said one. Higher education said another, but only because Peking University and Tsinghua are hard to get admission to. Unable to think of much else, they suggested that Europe allow Chinese companies to set up more factories there.
This attitude of ‘What’s mine is mine and what’s yours will be mine’ should be condemned, but don’t expect to hear that at Davos.
The author is a former Financial Times foreign correspondent.
