Lending business leaders surveyed by Fannie Mae see the shortage of housing provide as the most important danger consider 2024, however most anticipate refinancing to choose up subsequent 12 months if charges proceed to fall.
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Practically two out three mortgage lenders trimmed their workforces in 2023, however most lenders anticipate to both preserve or develop their payrolls this 12 months, based on a survey of greater than 200 senior executives by mortgage large Fannie Mae.
Whereas the survey discovered two-thirds of mortgage business executives assume it’s seemingly the U.S. financial system will tilt right into a recession inside the subsequent two years, that’s down from 93 p.c a 12 months in the past.
Lending business leaders see the shortage of housing provide as the most important danger consider 2024, however most (64 p.c) anticipate a brand new mortgage refinance growth to kick off this 12 months or subsequent if charges proceed to fall.
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Doug Duncan
“After job cuts in 2023, and with lenders typically much less pessimistic in regards to the financial system and the course of the mortgage market, employees sizes seem like normalizing” on the lowest stage since 2014, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan wrote in summarizing the survey’s findings.
“Mortgage exercise seemingly hit a post-pandemic flooring following that period’s traditionally excessive mortgage buy and refinance volumes,” Duncan wrote. “Because of this, we imagine some mortgage lenders are actually getting ready their workforces to satisfy potential development in mortgage originations ought to the gradual restoration of the housing market proceed by the remainder of this 12 months and into 2025.”
Carried out in early Might and launched this month, Fannie Mae’s Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey gathered views from 215 senior executives at 198 lenders, together with mortgage banks, depository establishments and credit score unions.
Mortgage lenders’ prime enterprise priorities
Supply: Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, July 2024.
“Expertise administration and management” was the highest precedence for many executives, adopted by cost-cutting and enterprise course of streamlining.
“Retention is prime of thoughts,” an government at one giant establishment instructed Fannie Mae. “We wish to retain our LO (mortgage originations) staff that’s performing in addition to proceed to scout for brand new expertise to affix our group. We’re in development mode for the foreseeable future.”
Fannie Mae defines giant establishments as having greater than $245 million in 2023 mortgage origination quantity.
Whereas 62 p.c of mortgage executives stated they reduce their workforce final 12 months, 54 p.c stated they anticipate 2024 staffing to remain about the place it was final 12 months, whereas 28 p.c anticipate to employees up this 12 months.
Final 12 months, as mortgage charges had been climbing previous 7 p.c to ranges not seen in additional than twenty years, cost-cutting and enterprise course of streamlining had been mortgage executives’ prime two priorities.
An government at a mid-sized establishment with between $46 million and $245 million in originations stated enterprise course of streamlining stays a prime precedence, with the lender migrating to a cloud-based system “to attenuate new product introductions and streamline the method for workers and members looking for a mortgage.”
New services and products had been a prime precedence for one in 4 executives surveyed, with a frontrunner at a smaller establishment (lower than $46 million in originations) saying that “Conventional mortgage origination has decreased a lot the final 18 months, we’re taking a look at different forms of methods to make cash, be it new merchandise or totally different providers.”
Investments in consumer-facing know-how — the highest precedence for lenders in 2019 — did not crack the highest three priorities for the third 12 months in a row.
Lenders much less sure of a recession in subsequent 2 years
Supply: Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, July 2024.
Mortgage execs assume the chances of a recession within the subsequent two years are higher than even, however solely 19 p.c assume a recession is “very seemingly,” down from 57 p.c a 12 months in the past. Near half of lending business leaders (48 p.c) nonetheless imagine a recession is “considerably seemingly.”
Scarce housing provide was the danger issue cited most frequently (64 p.c) by mortgage executives, adopted by mortgage charge adjustments (59 p.c), family debt stage (35 p.c) and residential costs (31 p.c).
Fannie Mae economists, who final 12 months had been warning that Fed tightening would seemingly result in a recession, backed away from that decision in January.
Of their June forecast, Fannie Mae’s extremely regarded Financial and Strategic Analysis (ESR) Group forecast that buy mortgage originations will develop by 14 p.c subsequent 12 months, to $1.5 trillion, as 30-year fixed-rate loans will drop to six.3 p.c by the top of subsequent 12 months.
Fannie Mae economists are predicting much more dramatic development in refinancing subsequent 12 months, with refi quantity rising by 46 p.c to $544 billion.
Two-thirds of mortgage executives surveyed by Fannie Mae expect a refi growth. Whereas solely 6 p.c see that taking place this 12 months, 26 p.c anticipate refinancing to choose up within the first half of subsequent 12 months, whereas 32 p.c are planning on a refi growth kicking off in H2 2025.
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