SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – On the eve of a widely predicted Ukrainian offensive along a 900-mile front that includes a bevy of fixed Russian positions, the very nature of what is at stake for both Kyiv and its western allies is now coming into greater focus. The conflict, brought on by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last year, is not so much a regional war, security experts say, but rather a “regional war in the dimension of … [a] global conflict,” according to retired four-star Gen. John Allen, former Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. In an exclusive briefing with The Cipher Brief, Allen detailed Russian tactics, broader implications of the war, new battlefield paradigms in both hybrid warfare and public-private partnerships, as well as the role of an increasingly-involved Chinese diplomatic, and perhaps even military efforts.
The message Allen sought to convey both underlines the perils of a potential defeat, and the ripple effects that it could have for both the U.S. and its European allies. “Ukrainians are fighting and dying on the battlefield for their independence, for their very survival,” he said. “But in many respects, their sacrifices are our sacrifices.”
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