May a small-market crew be a shock match for Roki Sasaki? Parsing his agent’s phrases

Finally month’s Winter Conferences in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe held court docket in entrance of a giant group of reporters and precipitated a stir when discussing his shopper, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is predicted to signal with a major-league crew after the worldwide signing interval begins on Jan. 15.

Hypothesis about the place Sasaki would in the end land in MLB has simmered since his Nippon Skilled Baseball debut in 2021, stoked by his stellar efficiency within the 2023 World Baseball Basic. The Dodgers are at the moment seen as a favourite, but it surely’s clear they’re not the one crew within the hunt.

On the Winter Conferences, Wolfe stated that Sasaki was searching for a crew that has had success on the sector and a historical past of creating pitchers. He additionally talked about entry to direct flights from his new metropolis to Japan as a consideration. However maybe most apparently, he stated that due to Sasaki’s private experiences rising up within the highlight in Japan, a small market crew outdoors of the media glare might need a larger probability than some may assume.

“I believe that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market crew may be extra helpful for him as a delicate touchdown coming from Japan, given what he’s been by way of and never having an pleasant expertise with the media,” Wolfe stated. “It may be — I’m not saying will probably be — I don’t know the way he’s going to view it, but it surely may be helpful for him to be in a smaller market.”

Groups took observe, with some altering their displays to account for the perceived preferences.

Sasaki, 23, was formally posted final month by Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. He can decide his crew, however as a result of he’s not a free agent, he can be sure by worldwide signing bonus limits.

Simply earlier than the brand new yr, Wolfe held a teleconference and stated 20 groups submitted pitches for Sasaki.

However the place will he go? And will it actually be a crew outdoors of the large coastal juggernauts? Wouldn’t it be potential to interrupt down which groups may be good matches for Sasaki, utilizing solely the standards Wolfe laid out? (Whereas after all understanding that there are lots of, many components at play past these.)

For this train, we checked out all 30 groups and graded them on 4 components (historical past of success, small media market, pitching growth and entry to Japan), rating every crew from one by way of 30 primarily based on a selected metric. One of the best earned 30 factors and the worst earned one level in every class.

We don’t know who will in the end win the Sasaki Sweepstakes, however maybe some groups have a greater probability than we beforehand thought.

Historical past of success

What Wolfe stated: “One of the best I can say is, he has paid consideration to how groups have achieved, so far as total success, each this yr and years previous. He does watch numerous Main League Baseball.”

Methodology: That is fairly simple. Does the crew win? For this, we’ll have a look at the successful share of MLB groups over the past 4 full seasons.

Limitations: Utilizing simply the regular-season win totals from the final 4 seasons doesn’t embrace postseason success. This system additionally weighs every season equally, and the 2021 Orioles (52 wins) and the 2021 White Sox (93 wins) are in a lot totally different conditions than their 2025 counterparts.

Conclusion: The Dodgers are good. We knew that. Solely as soon as within the final 4 years has the crew did not win 100 video games — and in that season, they received the World Sequence. With no repeat World Sequence winners over that interval, it’s clear that if successful is all that issues, becoming a member of the Dodgers is the best way to go.

However don’t rely out the Braves. Atlanta has the second-most regular-season victories over the past 4 seasons and a current World Sequence title of their very own. The Astros, who received the World Sequence in 2022, have the third-most victories over that point. The Rangers received a World Sequence in 2023, however solely eight groups have fewer regular-season victories over the past 4 years.

If there’s a sleeper on this group, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee’s received the fifth-most regular-season video games (366) and solely the New York Yankees have received extra regular-season video games (367) with out a World Sequence title in that timeframe.

Small media markets

What Wolfe stated: “I believe that there’s an argument to be made {that a} smaller, mid-market crew may be extra helpful for him as a delicate touchdown coming from Japan.”

Methodology: Not all media markets are created equal. Boston is the seventh-largest TV market within the nation, however enjoying in Boston is historically thought of a very intense media expertise. Boston, New York and Philadelphia have reputations as among the many hardest media markets, whereas giant markets like Los Angeles, Dallas and Atlanta don’t have the identical fame. For this train, we’ve used the 2024 Baseball Writers Affiliation of America rolls and ranked every chapter by the variety of members listed in that chapter as a mirrored image of the media consideration.

Limitations: Utilizing the BBWAA chapters simply tells complete numbers, it doesn’t embrace simply what number of writers are on the ballpark on daily basis. Additionally, there are 5 chapters — New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore-Washington and San Francisco-Oakland — with two groups. Each groups share the identical rating, even when the media surrounding the Dodgers or Cubs is bigger than the Angels or White Sox. The New York chapter is by far the biggest as a result of many nationwide writers additionally dwell in New York. Of the one-team chapters, solely Boston had extra members in 2024 than Miami, though lots of Miami’s members cowl gamers from Spanish-speaking international locations as a lot or greater than the Marlins. Additionally, this metric doesn’t embrace TV or radio protection. It additionally doesn’t issue within the Japanese media, which travels to cowl the nation’s finest gamers, no matter the place they’re enjoying. In 2020, no less than two Japanese media members have been in Cincinnati for a lot of the season only for Shogo Akiyama, who spent that season principally as a platoon participant.

Conclusion: The Brewers, Rays, Reds and Rockies may actually bear down on Wolfe’s feedback about small markets and media consideration of their pitch.

Creating pitching

What Wolfe stated: “He’s talked to numerous gamers, overseas gamers, which have been on his crew with Chiba Lotte. He requested questions on climate, comfortability, pitching growth.”

Methodology: For this train, we’ll use Cy Younger  Award voting from the previous 4 years. This, after all, advantages groups with established pitchers and groups just like the Yankees who signal big-name free brokers, however utilizing the cumulative voting totals hopefully offers credit score to groups whose pitchers constantly garner votes. For pitchers who have been traded through the season during which they earned factors, we’ve used the crew that pitchers began the season with as a result of the majority of the innings and the preparation have been from the primary crew.

Limitations: That is much less quantifiable than easy W-L data. Some groups are recognized for creating their pitchers on the minor-league degree and a few, just like the Astros and Rays, are recognized for taking gifted pitchers and enhancing them.

Utilizing simply the Cy Younger voting limits the pool to principally starters, which is OK since Sasaki goes to be signed and used as a starter. However this technique solely measures the perfect performances, and the way a lot of that’s on the pitcher and the way a lot of that’s on the crew? It additionally reductions earlier developments, corresponding to giving the Yankees credit score on Gerrit Cole, who grew to become an ace whereas with the Astros and was drafted by the Pirates. It additionally offers extra weight to the voting outcomes, with unanimous choices incomes a a lot greater level complete than shut choices.

Conclusion: The Blue Jays, surprisingly, high the record. A lot of that comes from Robbie Ray’s 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign, however the crew additionally had third-place finishers in 2022 (Alek Manoah) and 2023 (Kevin Gausman). Manoah is the one a kind of three to come back up by way of the Blue Jays’ system (and we’ll ignore what’s occurred since then), whereas Ray received the award in his first full season. Gausman’s third-place end got here in his first yr with the crew after signing as a free agent.

The Phillies completed second, adopted by the Braves. The Brewers completed ninth by this metric, however that would appear low contemplating the pitching the Brewers have gotten over the past 4 years. The Astros, a crew credited with turning round a number of pitching careers, completed sixth.

Direct flights to and from Japan

What Wolfe stated: “Once we provide data to our Japanese gamers, lengthy earlier than they arrive over right here, one of many issues that we offer for them is direct flights from Japan and the period of time it takes for household to come back and go to you. I take into consideration 5 or 10 years in the past that was one thing that possibly they weighed a bit bit extra, however now you possibly can fly direct from Japan to a lot of the main cities within the U.S.”

Methodology: There are direct flights to Japan from 15 totally different airports within the continental United States. Toronto additionally has direct flights to Japan. For this train, we’ll use the space from the crew’s house ballpark to the closest airport with a direct flight to Japan.

Limitations: There are a ton, however we’ll begin with the truth that when touring, essentially the most related unit of measurement is time, not distance. Nonetheless, variables together with frequency of flights, schedules, site visitors and total distance come into play — a flight with a cease from the West Coast will probably take much less time than a nonstop flight from the East Coast to Japan. And, sure, O’Hare airport could solely be 14 miles from Wrigley Discipline, however there are occasions of day that it may be a protracted drive.

Conclusion: San Diego is the clear winner right here. San Diego Worldwide Airport doesn’t have the quantity of flights accessible at LAX, but it surely does have the bonus of not being LAX or having LAX site visitors, which may add hours to journey time. The Twins are a sneaky great spot with direct flights.

Of observe: Although it isn’t mirrored in our calculation, Seattle provides the shortest flight time (10 hours, 10 minutes) to Tokyo.

Ultimate conclusion

Why are the great groups good? Properly, these good groups win video games, develop gamers and have cash. These three are literally tied to the classes given — with market measurement partially figuring out each direct flights to Japan and media consideration, each of which affect income. That’s why it’s no shock that the highest three groups in our train are the Padres, Braves and Astros.

It is just once we get to fourth place that we’ve got a kind of small-market groups within the Brewers. The Brewers tick all these packing containers, with an out-of-the-box decide in O’Hare Worldwide. (It might be in a distinct state, however O’Hare is simply over an hour and a $114 Uber trip from Milwaukee.)

Will the Brewers be the decide? It appears unlikely, however Matt Arnold’s crew could make some fascinating factors in its gross sales pitch.

The Padres had already been a crew seen as having a shot at Sasaki’s providers, and never simply due to the crew’s current historical past of handing out main contracts and making massive splashes. The Padres tick all of the packing containers that Wolfe laid out, each normally phrases and in our train. Whereas the highest 10 is affected by big-market bullies, the Mariners, who’ve as a lot historical past with Japanese gamers as any crew, completed tenth, adopted by the Twins. Each groups are forward of the Dodgers on this record, however someway, it appears Los Angeles nonetheless has a fairly good probability of touchdown one other Japanese famous person.

(Picture of Roki Sasaki: Eric Espada / Getty Pictures)