Consumers plan to buy same amount for Thanksgiving, but pay more

With Thanksgiving only a matter of days away, many consumers have their sights set on the dinner table for that day.

Despite growing inflation, consumers are expected to purchase the same amount of products as last year, though they are expecting to pay more.

Recent data from Circana found that while about four out of five Americans plan on celebrating the holiday this year, nearly a third said that while they will buy the same amount of items as last year, they are expecting to pay more.

The consumer behavior tracking firm found that Thanksgiving prices have risen more than 27% since 2019. It added that in 2022, Thanksgiving provided a $2.8B lift in sales for food and beverage companies compared to the average week.

Turkey, considered a staple of Thanksgiving in many American households, will be purchased by nearly 6 out of 10 holiday shoppers, according to market research firm Numerator. That’s good news for companies such as Hormel Foods (HRL), which owns Jennie-O Turkey Store, and Tyson Foods (TSN).

Most consumers still get their Thanksgiving shopping done at the supermarket. Numerator found that 76% of consumers plan to buy their Thanksgiving products at grocery stores. That’s sure to benefit large supermarket chains including Kroger (KR), Albertsons Companies (ACI), Ahold Delhaize (OTCQX:ADRNY), and Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM).

Big box retailers such as Target (NYSE:TGT) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) will also see customers seeking Thanksgiving products as 37% said they would also shop there. About 30% of respondents said they will go to a membership club, such as Costco (NASDAQ:COST) or BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ).

About one-third of consumers will buy alcohol for Thanksgiving, with wine at the top of the list. Of those planning to purchase alcoholic beverages, 70% plan to buy wine, followed by beer (57%) and spirits (28%). Wine, beer, and spirit names: Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Molson Coors Beverage (TAP), Constellation Brands (STZ), Diageo (DEO), and Brown-Forman (BF.B).

Numerator also found the products that see higher than normal purchasing leading to Thanksgiving.

Based on 2022 data, Kraft Heinz’s (NASDAQ:KHC) Stove Top stuffing and Cool Whip saw, respectively, 4.5 times and 3.4 times more purchases in the 2 weeks leading up to Thanksgiving compared to the two weeks after the holiday.