The next Climate Conference (COP28) will be held in Dubai at the end of the year. The UAE was present at the Delhi G20 summit where it watched, as an invitee, the discussions on issues of climate, energy and sustainable development. Even as the relevant paragraphs of the G20 declaration were being negotiated, certain quarters expected that the G20 would agree on a phase-down of fossil fuels including coal, oil and gas by a certain time frame. If agreed, the UAE would have been impacted much like the other oil and coal-producing countries within the G20. However, the final text of the declaration disappointed those who bet on it.
The declaration calls for the adoption of policies that help transition towards low-emission energy systems and rapid scaling up of clean power generation. This includes accelerated efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power within the framework of national circumstances, which is the language agreed upon at the Bali summit.
There is also a reference to low or zero-emission technologies which implies enhanced levels of renewable energy, energy efficiency, biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear and hydel energy as well as abatement and removal technologies. A specific reference to oil and gas phase-down is, however, missing.
It is argued that expansion of a “phase-down” from coal to all fossil fuels would have been in India’s interest as it would have widened the circle of commitments for all. Many also believe that the UAE has a moral responsibility to push such a phase-down not only because it is the leader of the next climate conference but also because it is a large contributor to global emissions on a per capita basis.
Others argue that fossil phase-out is absolutely necessary to achieve a 43% reduction of emissions from 2019 levels by 2030, a goal endorsed by the G20.
These arguments miss the finer points involved in attempting global sustainability while pursuing national strategy. The reluctance to expand the Bali (G20 summit) language on phase-down is partly explained by the fact that the G20 consists of several oil, gas and coal-producing countries. When it comes to climate, the group dynamics in the countries of South and North are totally different.
The G20 declaration calls for the developed countries to take the lead in emissions reduction. If the modelled pathways for peaking of global emissions by 2025 are to be followed strictly, the developed country members should have reduced their emissions to near zero by now. All such countries had reached their peak in 1990 but the reductions thereafter have progressed at a snail’s pace.
It is common knowledge that in many countries of the Global North, emissions are still rising rather than falling. It is hence difficult to agree on a responsibility framework where the burden of future fossil fuel production or consumption falls squarely on the Global South.
For a consensus to emerge on this issue, one has to wait for the outcome of the Global Stocktake (GST) of the progress made towards reaching global goals and the impact of actions by various countries.
The first GST initiated under the Paris Agreement in 2020 is poised to conclude in Dubai. Early feedback from the first GST indicates that the world is not on track to contain the emissions as required and that system transformation across all economic sectors is the only way to ensure low emission growth without causing economic and social loss.
The G20 has made some useful suggestions on how to scale up finance for low-emission system transformation. It has called for greater involvement of multilateral development banks (MDBs) in sustainable finance.
That MDBs like the World Bank may leverage their capital base to involve other stakeholders in mobilising green finance is a positive development.
For a change, the G20 has agreed on a global target of tripling renewable energy capacity in the interest of faster energy transition. It has recognised that withdrawal from coal or oil is linked to the deployment of renewable energy on scale within the grid-based energy system.
India should be happy with this development as it has sufficient lead in this field over other G20 members. A similar target of doubling energy efficiency means that small and medium industries, which are the mainstay of the industrial supply chain and contribute to 30% of emissions, can receive financing for efficiency measures. A consensus on incorporating these targets in national goals in Dubai would be a gain for the global climate process.
Oil companies that contribute to fossil fuel emissions emphasise the role of carbon capture and storage for stabilisation of emissions in the oil and gas industry. While India has generally remained suspicious of such fancy technologies in the power sector because of their inherent cost and doubts about technical feasibility, it appears that oil-producing economies would rely on this technology to some extent until they diversify their economies. G20 has talked about access to abatement and removal technologies in the long term even as measures are taken to scale up renewable energy in the medium term.
Unfortunately, technological progress in this regard is slow in this area. Hopefully, initiatives like the Green Hydrogen Innovation Centre in the International Solar Alliance and Biofuel Alliance may advance the pace of future actions.
At COP28, there will be several other emotive issues relating to funds for loss and damage and adaptation financing that will compete for the attention of the presidency. The UAE will have to ensure that these issues of immediate importance are not lost at the altar of future transition.
RR Rashmi is distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and former lead climate negotiator. The views expressed are personal
