Donald Trump’s emphatic victory within the US presidential election has brought about jitters north of the border in Canada, an in depth ally with a buying and selling partnership price about $1.3tn a 12 months.
In his congratulatory message to the president-elect, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reminded Washington that Canada and the US have “the world’s most profitable partnership” and that they “are additionally one another’s largest commerce companions and our economies are deeply intertwined”.
In the meantime Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister, instructed reporters in Ottawa that whereas there have been a “lot of anxieties” after Trump’s victory, “Canada will probably be completely high quality”.
Ottawa had first-hand expertise of Trump’s “America First” commerce coverage throughout his earlier administration. In 2017 the previous president insisted on renegotiating the two-decade outdated North American Free Commerce Settlement, which he described as a “catastrophe” that, together with China, had hollowed out the US manufacturing sector.
Trump additionally accused Trudeau of being “two-faced” throughout tense 2019 talks on Nato defence spending, with Canada’s contributions to the alliance nonetheless beneath the minimal of two per cent of GDP.
Canadian defence spending is more likely to stay a sticking level. Mélanie Joly, minister of overseas affairs, mentioned on Wednesday that Canada could be tripling its defence price range. “We wish to strengthen the Nato alliance, and Canada will proceed to contribute,” she mentioned.
However Trudeau instructed a Nato summit in July that the two per cent goal wouldn’t be reached till 2032.
Agriculture is one other space that brought about issues between the 2 neighbours. Trump railed towards Canadian protections on dairy merchandise throughout his presidency, tweeting in 2018: “Canada fees the US a 270% tariff on Dairy Merchandise! . . . Not honest to our farmers!”
Canada’s Digital Providers Tax Act, which locations a 3 per cent tax on world know-how corporations, largely primarily based within the US, is also an space of concern within the upcoming Trump administration.
Canadian officers are eager to minimize any attainable friction, stating that the 2 international locations together with Mexico signed the US-Mexico-Canada Settlement, which changed Nafta, throughout Trump’s final time period.
“Our buying and selling relationship at present is ruled by the commerce deal concluded by President Trump himself and his staff. That’s actually, actually essential,” Freeland mentioned this week.
She and different officers have additionally been assembly US counterparts all year long to bolster commerce continuity. Candace Laing, president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, on Wednesday issued an announcement stating that the 2 international locations share “a formidable $3.6bn in every day commerce” and “tariffs and commerce boundaries that can solely elevate costs and damage customers in each international locations”.
Goldy Hyder, president of the Enterprise Council of Canada, mentioned Trump’s robust mandate affords Canada alternatives. “We are able to improve power safety, drive financial development, enhance shared prosperity and set up ourselves as the worldwide commonplace for innovation and financial co-operation,” he mentioned.
However there’s nervousness in Ottawa. Trump has threatened to impose duties of 10-20 per cent on imports from all buying and selling companions. With the USMCA settlement up for evaluation in 2026, it could possibly be topic to vary below his presidency.
Trudeau on Thursday re-established the cupboard committee on Canada-US relations to give attention to “vital” bilateral points. After its first assembly on Friday, Freeland, its chair, mentioned the group would meet “usually and early subsequent week”, and added that Trump and his decide for commerce consultant, Robert Lighthizer, have described USMCA as a “mannequin commerce deal and I agree with them”.
“We all know our buying and selling relation is robust and mutually helpful . . . We’re an important export marketplace for the US by a protracted shot,” she mentioned.
If Trump had been to impose his proposed 10 per cent blanket tariffs, it could hit about one-tenth of US imports from Canada between 2026 and 2027, mentioned Tony Stillo, Canadian director of the Oxford Economics think-tank.
“A second Trump presidency will seemingly additionally result in higher world uncertainty so it is going to be essential to anticipate the surprising, significantly on the subject of tariffs,” he warned.
Stillo added that if tariffs had been imposed, Canada would seemingly reply with proportional retaliatory and, in some circumstances, focused levies that will hit Republican state governors as a strategy to put strain on Trump.
Authorities officers are in the meantime eager to focus on areas during which the US and Canada are co-operating, comparable to on China.
François-Philippe Champagne, minister of innovation, science and trade, mentioned Canada was now extra “strategically built-in” with the US on vital minerals, the cross-border automotive trade and inexperienced power provide chains.
“Everybody [in Washington] is speaking about safety, that’s the paramount matter. [Also] provide chain resiliency — they perceive that we’re their key strategic associate,” he mentioned.
This week Ottawa ordered Chinese language-owned social media firm TikTok to shut its Canadian workplace primarily based on “nationwide safety grounds” and “recommendation from companions”, Champagne added.
The Trump presidency is additionally excellent news for Canada’s oil and fuel sector, which sends most of its merchandise to the US.
“Power is the cornerstone of our commerce relationship. That simply acquired more true,” mentioned Heather Exner-Pirot, a coverage director on the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa-based think-tank.
After US President Joe Biden scrapped the $8bn Keystone XL pipeline in June 2021, sustaining an built-in North American power system and bidirectional power flows “is more and more in focus”, mentioned a spokesperson for Enbridge, a Calgary-based multinational pipeline and power firm.
Finally, Canada’s relations with its extra highly effective neighbour would rely upon Trump’s method to the rule of legislation, mentioned Errol Mendes, professor of legislation at Ottawa college.
“If it seems to be a shift in direction of autocracy, Canada is in very deep bother on commerce, worldwide safety, migration and social battle internally and externally,” he warned.
