Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle remains to be enjoying out, however the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving towards politics and liquidity, based on Markus Thielen, head of analysis at 10x Analysis.
Talking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the concept of the four-year cycle being “damaged” misses the purpose. In his view, the cycle stays intact, however it’s not dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed provide cuts. As an alternative, it’s more and more formed by US election timelines, central financial institution coverage and the circulate of capital into threat belongings.
Thielen pointed to historic market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred within the fourth quarter. These peaks, he stated, align extra carefully with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted all through the calendar over time.
“There’s this uncertainty that the sitting president’s occasion goes to lose a number of seats. I believe that is additionally the chances now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a number of seats within the Home, and subsequently, possibly he isn’t going to push a number of his agenda by anymore,” he stated.
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Fed fee lower fails to spice up Bitcoin
The feedback come as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following the Federal Reserve’s newest fee lower. Whereas fee cuts have traditionally supported threat belongings, Thielen famous that the present setting is completely different. Institutional buyers, now the dominant drive in crypto markets, are extra cautious, particularly as coverage alerts from the Fed stay combined and liquidity circumstances tighten.
Moreover, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed in contrast with final 12 months, decreasing the upside stress wanted to maintain a powerful breakout. And not using a clear pickup in liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to stay in a consolidation section quite than enter a brand new parabolic rally.
The shift additionally has implications for a way buyers take into consideration timing. Moderately than anchoring expectations to the halving, Thielen stated market individuals ought to watch political catalysts corresponding to US elections, fiscal coverage debates and shifts in financial circumstances.
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Arthur Hayes: 4-year crypto cycle is useless
In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the four-year crypto cycle is over, however not due to fading institutional curiosity or adjustments to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. He stated merchants counting on historic timing fashions to name the tip of the present bull market are prone to be unsuitable, as these patterns not replicate how markets transfer.
In keeping with Hayes, Bitcoin cycles have at all times been pushed by international liquidity, not by arbitrary four-year timelines. Previous bull markets ended when financial circumstances tightened, notably when US greenback and Chinese language yuan liquidity slowed. The halving, he stated, has been overstated as a causal issue quite than a coincidental one.
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