At The Cash: Jeff Hirsch on Presidential Investing Cycles. (January 25, 2025)
What does historical past inform us about how newly elected presidents impression the market cycle? What ought to traders anticipate from the subsequent 4 years?
Full transcript under.
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About this week’s visitor:
Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Inventory Dealer’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Publication.
For more information, see:
Skilled web site
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Discover the entire earlier On the Cash episodes right here, and within the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And discover the complete musical playlist of On the Cash on Spotify
Beforehand:
On the Cash: Seasonality In Shares (December 21, 2023)
Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010)
Tremendous Increase: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Revenue From It (April 12, 2011)
Jeff Hirsch on Presidential Cycles
New yr, new president, new insurance policies. What can we anticipate when a brand new president takes over the white home? I’m Barry Ritholtz. And on at this time’s version of on the cash, we’re going to debate how presidential cycles have an effect on markets and equities to assist us perceive all of this and its implications to your portfolio.
To assist us perceive all of this and its implications to your portfolio, let’s herald Jeff Hirsch. He’s editor in chief of the Inventory Merchants Almanac since Might 2003. And in 2011, he was the creator of the e-book, “Superboom, Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 39,000 and How You Can Revenue From It.” Full disclosure, I wrote the foreword to that e-book.
So, so let’s leap proper into the presidential cycle principle. Your father, Yale Hirsch, developed this idea in 1967. Clarify his principle.
Jeff Hirsch: Yale actually put the presidential cycle, the four-year cycle, on Wall Avenue’s map when he printed the primary almanac again in ’67. Backside line, it’s about presidents making an attempt to get re elected. They attempt to make voters comfortable, uh, prime the pump, um, within the third yr, um, we’ve received a complete web page on how the federal government manipulates the economic system, most just lately the 2023 inventory merchants almanac, they usually actually attempt to prop it up within the third yr, they usually maintain their least savory coverage initiatives and agenda objects within the first two years, I believe what we’ve seen just lately with Trump 2.0 on day one, et cetera, is a living proof of that, making an attempt to get a variety of stuff carried out. Overseas adversaries have a tendency to check new administrations early on. Ukraine in 22 is an efficient instance of that. And it form of creates this tendency for bear markets within the midterm yr. And that candy spot of the four-year cycle, the This fall of midterm yr to Q2, pre-election yr, and if you happen to keep in mind, October 22 is just about a textbook, midterm, traditional October backside.
Barry Ritholtz: 1967 looks like a very long time, completely different economic system, completely different market, completely different credit score cycle. How has the speculation developed since, let’s name it 57 years in the past?
Jeff Hirsch: The primary years have been notoriously weak. I believe the largest change has been post-election years, which is what we’re in proper now at 25, have gotten significantly better.
It appears to be form of the identical priming of the pump forward of the midterm cycle now, the place they’re making an attempt to, um, grasp on to as many congressional seats as attainable. Publish-election years have improved dramatically since World Struggle II and extra dramatically since 1985, with the Dow averaging 17.2% in post-election years, 8 up, 2 down. Greatest common acquire of the four-year cycle, besting the pre-election yr, which you realize Is the perfect over the long run at 15.2%, however the pre election yr solely has one loss Uh, though the typical is just a little bit decrease. So Uh, it’s fairly bullish for 2025 for me, you realize, I’m, I’m taking a look at a, uh, uh, an up yr, 8 to 12 p.c is my base case with some pullbacks in Q1 and Q2, however you realize, not the 20 plus p.c we’ve had the previous couple of years.
Barry Ritholtz: I believe again, uh, since this principle got here out in 67, Nixon, Ford ever so briefly, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton for 2 phrases, Bush two for 2 phrases, Obama for 2 phrases, Trump, Biden, after which Trump once more. How has the presidential cycle principle held up over all these completely different presidents?
Jeff Hirsch: Fairly good on the whole. Apart from the nineties, you realize, the, dot com increase, just about straight up throughout the late nineties. However there’ve been some derailments. A number of that is on web page 130 of your useful Inventory Merchants Alamanac. I’m going to behave the entire four-year cycle, which I all the time hold in my desk. You’ll be able to seek advice from it your self.
There’s been some derailments, it’s not good. We had the tremendous increase within the 90s into 2000. COVID was that form of huge oversold — purchase there. Was it nonetheless an excellent yr? The final cycle, which I simply, you realize, reset for subscribers 2021 to 24 was fairly textbook. You understand, not good, however it works pretty-damn effectively over the lengthy haul.
Barry Ritholtz: Let’s speak in regards to the strongest yr. Tends to be the third yr of presidential phrases. Traditionally, they kick out all of the stops. Every little thing they might do in yr three, tease them up for the election yr. No matter whether or not it’s them operating for re election. or their occasion, they, they actually are inclined to ship this larger.
And as you talked about in 2024, plus 25 p.c is a monster yr. Maintain apart how the incumbent occasion loses with the economic system up as a lot because it was within the inventory market up that a lot. However what are the elements that drive this sample? It’s been probably the most constant a part of the, the cycle. The third yr nearly all the time appears to do rather well.
Jeff Hirsch: I received to repeat what we simply stated. I imply, it’s, it’s prime of the pump. It’s how the federal government manipulates the economic system to remain in energy. There’s, there’s a complete checklist of things with altering social safety funds. I imply even in New York state, you’re a New York State resident. You bought a examine from from Gov Kathy Hochul simply forward of the election. I imply, it’s, it’s all the way down to the governor’s stage. It’s they’re not even making an attempt to cover it anymore.
It’s simply, you realize, they’re doing all the things they will to to safe their legacy to retain energy for themselves, their occasion to make voters comfortable going into the sales space. And that’s what creates that. They received to do it forward of time as a result of they’re going to be campaigning within the election yr. In order that they received to do a variety of these items to prime that pump within the pre-election yr. And that’s probably the most constant. A part of it. It actually units up that candy spot that we speak about.
Barry Ritholtz: Plus it does take a short time for issues like fiscal spending and tax cuts to make its manner by way of the economic system.
If the third yr is the strongest. What’s traditionally the weakest yr and, and what are the elements that, that maintain that again?
Jeff Hirsch: It’s the midterm yr. The second yr. (We name it submit, mid, and pre. That’s Yale’s, Yale’s previous nomenclature).
We had been throughout this in 2022. Putin invading Ukraine helped. I believe a part of the rationale that he went in was due to the timing of the cycle the place he is aware of and different international adversaries know that there’s a vulnerability therein America, however it’s the midterm yr and that you could see it on our charts. We do the 4 yr cycle, breakdown by quarters.
The weak spot is Q2 and Q3 of the midterm yr. Dow’s down on common 2%, S&P 2.5%, NASDAQ minus 6.6%, and that units up that candy spot.
Barry Ritholtz: Any distinction within the historic information between, let’s say a president has two phrases between the four-year cycle of time period one and the four-year cycle of time period two or does it not matter?
Jeff Hirsch: It’s just a little bit higher. Not, not a lot. In time period two.
Barry Ritholtz: The belief being, hey, if the economic system is sweet sufficient for them to get reelected.
Jeff Hirsch: Particularly in that submit election yr, the fifth yr of a presidency, um, you realize, they’ve received extra of a mandate. Uh, you realize, we’ve seen, you realize, on common about 9.7% for the S&P in these fifth years versus what it’s about all years about 9.5% of the all submit lectures, just a little bit decrease than that. Nevertheless it’s been so much higher in current historical past. You understand, you return to, you realize, 1917, 1937, ‘57, ‘73, all weak years. In that fifth yr, um, however since, since 85, you realize, submit election years, fifth years are nice.
Barry Ritholtz: Right here’s a very random query, and I do know there’s no actual good reply to this. Does it matter if the presidential phrases are non-consecutive? I do know we now have now an information set of 1 earlier than this.
Jeff Hirsch: Possibly, perhaps one. I imply, 1893, we had the panic in 1893. The melancholy from 1883 to 1997, we had what? Was there even indoor plumbing in all places again then?
I don’t suppose so. Not precisely the identical market. No, not precisely the identical world. (from Fiddler, it’s a brand new world, Golda) It’s a lot completely different, um, however it’s nonetheless all about, constructing their legacy, protecting the occasion in energy, and, um, just a little little bit of ego concerned there, however, uh, it’s making an attempt to make issues look as nice as attainable for his or her occasion and their, and their legacy.
Barry Ritholtz: So It’s humorous we’re speaking about 1893. It seems like America at this time is extra partisan and extra polarized than it’s been definitely in our lifetimes. Does which have any impression on the presidential cycle?
Jeff Hirsch: I don’t suppose so. I’m undecided if it’s if it’s notion. Um, you realize, we all know one another a very long time. We all know a variety of the identical folks within the enterprise. I’ve a variety of buddies from completely different factors of view. There’s folks within the enterprise completely different factors of view. However once we speak about issues, there’s much more in widespread than completely different, even with the folks on completely different ideologies and completely different political factors of view.
If something, I believe it would amplify the 4 yr cycle as a result of it’s extra incumbent upon the incumbents (pardon the alliteration there) to retain energy and to attempt to hold their occasion in Congress. And I believe it may actually amplify it.
Barry Ritholtz: So that you’re an information wonk, you’ve been going by way of the Inventory Merchants Almanac to your complete profession. You’re all the time taking a look at all these fascinating numbers and, and market information. What’s been the largest shock or anomaly you’ve noticed in presidential market cycles?
Jeff Hirsch: To start with, I grew up doing this. I imply, I took over the editorship in 03, however, I grew up operating these numbers by hand and out of Barron’s with just a little ruler and a purple pen and, you realize, an including machine and graph paper with a, with a, with a pencil.
The most important shock I believe is the report of the Dow in pre-election years of no losses since 1939 till 2015. So from 1943 to 2023 in, in submit election years, excuse me. Pre election years, the Dow is 20 and 1.
After which the opposite factor, with the 4 yr cycle, there’s a pair different discoveries and issues we made, however for the 4 yr cycle, this factor I discussed earlier was the post-election yr flipping from being the worst, you realize, within the huge historical past behind the Almanac, like I discussed, to being the perfect since 85.
Barry Ritholtz: Why do you suppose that’s the first yr droop simply hasn’t materialized since actually, because the monetary disaster? Are we blaming accrediting low rates of interest within the fed for this? Or is it one thing else?
Jeff Hirsch: I believe it has one thing to do with the compressor of the cycle that I’ve talked about the place midterms have change into way more essential to hold on to the slim margins we’ve seen in recent times.
And also you sort of have that nearly, you realize, second pre-election yr. It’s the post-election yr of the primary yr of the time period is, is de facto the, the pre midterm election yr the place they received to do stuff. Uh, to, to make the voters comfortable, um, in order that they will hold their occasion in Congress as effectively, or win again some seats, no matter it would, is perhaps on the time.
Barry Ritholtz: So our ultimate query, how ought to traders take into consideration their funding postures relative to presidential cycles?
Jeff Hirsch: Nicely, you realize, we now have a method the place we use the, the seasonality, the perfect and worst months at the side of the 4 yr cycle. We principally keep in from the midterm low. You understand, the midterm purchase sign October by way of the post-election yr, April, Might.
So principally, you wish to keep away from the weak spots. Q1 submit election yr, Q1 first yr is among the weak spots. Not fairly as dangerous, however the true one I discussed earlier than, Q2 and Q3, the midterm yr. And also you wish to again up the truck for the candy spot for that, you realize, October purchase within the midterm yr like we had within the traditional one we had in 2022.
And I believe you wish to. You understand, be leery of getting out and in at instances when the cycle is troughing or peaking, similar to you’ll do with the seasonal cycle. So principally, you wish to be lengthy This fall midterm yr by way of the post-election yr first quarter and form of be extra cautious in these two years.
Barry Ritholtz: So to wrap up, traders with a long-term perspective ought to put together themselves for just a little little bit of softening following the primary quarter of a brand new presidential time period – perhaps it lasts 4 quarters, 6 quarters. Traditionally, it’s just a little weaker than the remainder of the cycle. When it makes that low, whether or not that’s the summer season or October of the midterm yr, That’s what tees you up for actually the perfect historic returns inside a brand new presidency.
So strap your self in, may get just a little shaky for the subsequent couple of quarters, however the payoff for that’s from the midterm cycle by way of the final yr of the presidency.
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