For all of the sturm und drang of at this time’s preventing, adjustments on the bottom had been scant. Ukraine formally picked up a small city right here, Russia did the identical over there. Whereas a lot of the entrance line was on hearth (Ukraine claimed 14 separate assaults), the scenario on the bottom remained basically unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are at all times nice, if you wish to see today’s changes.
I wrote earlier that pro-Russian Telegram sources claimed Ukraine was assaulting Izyum from throughout the Donets River (backside arrow in picture beneath), however a number of sources declare the assault is definitely coming down from Chuhuiv (prime arrow).
If Chuhuiv is the the supply of the counter-offensive, it will possible journey that most important freeway southeast towards Izyium, somewhat than east towards Kupiansk. Russia has moved an excessive amount of fight energy to Shevchenkove, between Chuhuiv and Kupiansk, to guard its vital provide depot from any Ukrainian advance. Getting by means of these two cities can be costly to Ukraine in army assets and lives. And there’s no want, as we’ve can now so clearly see with Ukraine’s push towards Izyum itself.
In brief, if Ukraine collapses that Izyum pocket, there’s now not a necessity for Russia to take care of operations in both Kupiansk or Vovchansk—the 2 logistical hubs feeding the conflict machine within the Izyum salient. After per week of debating “Kupiansk vs Vovchansk,” it seems that the most effective reply is “C: Take away the motive for each.”
To make sure, I doublechecked NASA Companies satellite tv for pc imagery, and there’s actually no fires close to Shevechenkove. If Ukraine was headed in that route, it will hearth in town to clear Russian positions, whereas Russia would hearth again to sluggish or cease the advance. As an alternative, as I demonstrated earlier with FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery, all of the motion is creating straight west of Izyum:
Possibly there’s a two-prong assault on Izyum creating, from each the west and northwest. Or perhaps folks don’t know what’s happening. Or perhaps there’s even some disinformation designed to repair Russian positions on a northwest method that can by no means materialize. That’s why FIRMS imagery might be so useful. There are such a lot of sources of data claiming stuff, and never all of them are really incentivized to at all times inform the reality.
On one other subject, it’s good seeing our protection tax {dollars} doing one thing productive.
The declare by Ukrainian servicemen’s is that American-donated M777 howitzers destroyed the 80+ automobiles at Russia’s unimaginably disastrous Bilohorivka river crossing try. I’m wanting ahead to a translation (this guy will do it quickly), nevertheless it positively seems like an “America, FUCK YEAH” second we liberals can rally behind.
This entire debacle has been enjoyable to trace on pro-Russia social media. The Institute for the Examine of Battle claims, in tonight’s replace, that they’ve seen pro-Russia telegram shaken by the carnage:
Outstanding pro-Russian Telegram channels (with roughly 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian Common Workers for failing to study from earlier fight errors and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational consciousness. Different pro-Russian Telegram channels famous the sluggish tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it partly on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the adverse results of unhealthy morale throughout the Russian army. Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the efficiency of the Russian army.
I have to frequent a distinct nook of Telegram and pro-Russia Twitter, as a result of what I’ve seen is completely totally different—the invention of a fantastical alternate actuality the place many of the destroyed automobiles are Ukrainian.
The idea is as such: many of the destroyed automobiles are BMP-1 infantry preventing automobiles, and supposedly Russia now not fields these historic automobiles. On-the-ground photographs reveals Russian uniforms in those BMP-1s, however hey, these could possibly be faked, proper? That’s what the propagandists say. Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) analyst Henry Schlottman, the authority on the composition of Russian military models, actually claims Russia fields them.
Oryx has tracked 43 BMP-1s misplaced by Russia, like this, this, this, and this, all with distinguished Russian invasion markings. Oh, and right here’s one nonetheless in Russia’s arms, a minimum of a number of weeks in the past:
Moreover, Russia has been pressured to dig into its operational reserves to backfill fight losses whereas reconstituting shredded models. There aren’t lots of fashionable infantry automobiles in these reserves. That is the crap they’re pulling out.
After all, there’s much more than simply BMP-1s on the Bilohorivka catastrophe web site! There are 14 T-72s, that are customary Russian situation (although Ukraine has captured a bunch), in addition to BMP-2s, and engineering and help gear that solely Russia fields. So how do they clarify that?
Effectively, they are saying there was a giant battle on the spot. Certain, Russia now not holds the bridgeheads however their losses had been only a fraction of the general whole destroyed automobiles. You see, Russia destroyed all these Ukrainians in BMP-1s earlier than tactically retreating again throughout the bridge, which then Ukraine destroyed after the very fact … er … 3 times.
Then Russia launched video saying “nuh uh, we destroyed Ukrainian bridge!”
Besides … all I see is Russian taking pictures at a river, then dropping artillery on a river, with no automobiles anyplace round. Who is aware of, perhaps they did compromise a working bridgehead. However it will nonetheless imply the tally is as follows:
Destroyed Russian pontoon bridge: 82+ automobiles
Destroyed Ukrainian pontoon bridge: 0 automobiles
However actually, that form of propaganda isn’t designed to persuade folks, it’s designed to present their partisans crap to spew. Nothing else. There’s a time period for that form of fantasy-making on this conflict, and it’ll jump over to our personal political discourse earlier than lengthy: copium. Individuals will invent what they want to deal with the information they don’t wish to see.
