Hey, take a look at that, the Pentagon lastly admits {that a} Russian BTG will not be actually a BTG.
Pentagon retains saying stuff like “Russia has 106 BTGs in Ukraine,” however that’s actually gibberish. On paper, a Russian BTG ought to have 600-800 troopers, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry preventing automobiles (together with assorted artillery, air protection, and logistics/help automobiles). In actuality, deployed BTGs not often, if ever, arrived at full power, largely due to grift, but additionally as a result of conscripts assigned to these models weren’t legally allowed to deploy exterior of Russia (although it occurred generally, it wasn’t widespread). At this level, Russian BTGs are principally shattered remnants. To show that time, let me let you know the story of Dovhenke, simply 26 kilometers (~16 miles) southeast of the Izyum salient.
Russians know the city as Dolgen’koye, and it’s at the moment blocking Russia’s southern advance. Just some kilometers south of the city, a rail line nonetheless feeds provides to Sloviansk (and Kramatorsk). Its worth is apparent. Extra ambitiously, any try to encircle these Ukrainian strongholds at Slovyansk and Kramatorsk run by Dovhenke. The city had a pre-war inhabitants of 850, so we’re speaking a number of farmhouses and sheds. This isn’t an city stronghold.
In the meantime, estimates put Russia’s presence within the Izyum entrance at 22 BTGs, Russia’s largest focus of firepower in your entire nation.
Keep in mind, 22 BTGs technically ought to imply 220 tanks, 880 infantry preventing automobiles, a buttload of artillery, and near 18,000 troopers. Dovhenke is simply down the street from Izyum. Ought to be a straightforward pickings, proper? Russia took Izyum on April 1, there’s been loads of time for progress!
Dmitri on Twitter has been dutifully translating Russian-language accounts of the conflict, and he stumbled onto an actual treasure, the diary of a Russian contract volunteer. Half I talks about how Viktor ended up in Ukraine within the first place. It’s attention-grabbing, for certain, significantly in his dialogue on how little coaching and preparation volunteers obtained. However Half II is one thing else. You see, Viktor spent a month with models preventing the battle of Dovhenke.
On 10 April, myself and 4 extra individuals ended up within the first firm of the 752th regiment situated on the defence in shrubbery at altitude 200 to the south of Kamenka village. Commanding the corporate was Sr. Lieutenant Guzaev. An actual officer and an excellent particular person… Variety and humane… Within the firm (if it may be known as an organization) there have been 8 individuals along with firm’s starshina who by no means went into assaults. After we joined, the corporate consisted of 13 individuals.
An organization is 4 platoons, every of which ought to have 30-40 squaddies. Every platoon usually has 4 sections, so round 7-10 troopers every. So, what ought to’ve been an organization with 120-160 troopers, in truth had 13. That’s, at finest, simply 10% of full power. It was part pretending to be an organization.
Anyway, Viktor set out for an assault on Dovhenke, however they acquired misplaced or one thing. Possibly it was intentional sabotage by the “firm” commander. They misplaced a man as a result of he was so out of form that he began to have “coronary heart aching.” That proved fortuitous for Viktor, as a result of he was ordered to remain again with the “injured,” regardless of not having been hit by something apart from oblique mortar fireplace. The subsequent morning…
Many firm commanders within the two battalions of the 752th regiment informed their fighters that we’re being despatched to a certain loss of life, because the Ukrainians are properly ready. In order that they stated – determine for your self if you wish to go or not. 4 fifths of us (if no more) refused to go. So did I.
They’re already what, 90% understrength, after which one other 80% determine to not proceed. This was the closest to fight Viktor acquired. The remainder of this data he acquired second-hand from different fighters.
Additionally, who says “signal me up!” with that pitch?
They left at 10AM and solely by 4PM managed to succeed in 600 meters from the village. They have been exhausted. All this time they marched underneath heavy mortar and artillery shelling. Useless and wounded began showing. Once we reported to our battalion commander Main Vasyura about useless and wounded, he stubborn: ‘depart them and preserve advancing!!!’.
Keep in mind, Russia supposedly has 22 BTGs within the space—220 tanks and near 1,000 infantry preventing automobiles. Numerous vehicles too. What are they doing rucking six hours merely to get to the outskirts of city, with none armor help, and no automobiles to move them? So after all, as predicted by these commanders, they acquired smashed, suffered heavy casualties, and needed to retreat.
In order that they retreated. Everybody was exhausted. It was very troublesome carrying the wounded. We got here again at 11PM. One of many volunteers, Andrey from Kursk who got here along with me stated that many merely ran off whereas retreating. He yelled at them to assist pull out the wounded, however they did not assist. He stated he wished to seize an assault rifle and begin taking pictures of their backs… Thus, the grenade launcher platoon commander, Captain Nikolaev who was dragged for 4 hours, died from blood loss… I did not know him personally, however everybody stated he was an excellent particular person… In order that was an assault on Dolgen’koye on 20 April…
Critically, not a single infantry preventing car or truck to assist carry the wounded again? You are going to inform me they’ve all that supposed fight energy, they usually made these guys march 4-6 hours every method, with no car help? Or possibly Ukraine has accomplished such a great job interdicting gas provides, that Russia actually can’t transfer its automobiles.
Trying forward, I’ll say that primarily based on the truth that totally different models tried to take Dolgen’koye, I believe that our command merely had the duty of taking Dolgen’koye and easily despatched in everybody they may. It acquired to a degree the place in early Could they began sending solely 7 individuals to assault!!
WUT
New volunteers have been instantly thrown onto Dolgen’koye upon arrival to Ukraine. There have been no extra officers in order that they have been choosing essentially the most hardened ones among the many volunteers (ones who fought in Chechnya and Syria), appointed them as seniors, gave them radios and despatched them to assault… On the finish of April they delivered to us round 18 individuals who superior as a big group of 120. They stated that aside from them another unit attacked Dolgen’koye from one other route. Maybe that’s the reason they reached Dolgen’koye with none mortar shelling. That they had 300-400 meters to go once they got here underneath crossfire from two machine weapons… Even nearer to them have been positions of Ukrainian assault riflemen. They began fight. Our guys additionally had machine weapons and RPGs. As I understood they killed a minimum of 6 assault riflemen however needed to retreat resulting from Ukrainian machine weapons which they could not suppress. Most definitely the machine weapons have been situated in well-fortified positions. The blokes stated that if they’d just a little assist, if the machine weapons have been suppressed with helicopters or tanks, then they’d have entered Dolgen’koye…
If Russia had 22 functioning BTGs within the Izyum salient, they wouldn’t be throwing the freshest meat into that grinder. Their very own officers say “it’s a suicide mission,” and but they preserve executing the order from who-knows-what-general who acquired his rank by being so silly, he would by no means pose a menace to Putin’s regime. “We acquired 120? Throw them in! Frontal assault. Oh, solely 18 returned? Smush them with these different survivors, and let’s do it once more!”
Word that Russia misplaced over 100 males on this assault … due to two machine weapons. Two. A tank would take out these ready machine gun nests. However once more, Russia couldn’t spare a single one. (And to be honest, if they’d, it probably would’ve been taken out by an NLAW or Javelin. However a minimum of Russia would give these poor souls a preventing likelihood.)
On the very least, you’d suppose Russia would do them the courtesy of a journey to their loss of life, as an alternative of letting them arrive to the entrance line wiped after a 4-6 hour march, lugging all their weapons and ammunition with them.
In Could they introduced the remnants of ‘Bars’ (educated reservists from all of Russia) – 14 individuals. They assaulted Dolgen’koye for a month and remained within the space. As I perceive it, they have been hooked up to the management of our depraved division. In complete, 340 of them arrived to Ukraine. After a month of shelling solely 57 remained. Furthermore, half of the survivors have been on the headquarters. Most of them have been wounded. They by no means had a single firefight, all of the losses got here from Ukrainian artillery fireplace…
That is what occurs once you don’t defend your flanks, and it’s the rationale I all the time stated the Izyum salient would fall. Keep in mind this picture from again in April?
I wrote on the time how Ukrainian artillery may arrange store to the west and whittle away Russian forces. Viktor confirms that’s precisely what’s occurring.
Now the Pentagon say Russia has “switched to smaller models,” which is hilariously understated. That is after spending the final two months predicting a giant Russian combined-arms massed offensive within the Donbas that was simply across the nook. It was clear from the beginning that this this was by no means going to occur. Russia’s solely play, from the very begin of the conflict, has been drip-drip-drip assaults, by no means in a position to open any spigot. Are you able to think about these Ukrainian defenders at Dovhenke watching one other wave of untrained, under-equipped, infantry stumble in, half useless from their brutal march, with zero armor or air help? It’s a turkey shoot.
After which individuals surprise 1) why Russia by no means superior from their preliminary Izyum positions, regardless of all that supposed massed firepower, and a pair of) why Mark and I aren’t panicking in regards to the Popasna salient.
I actually want we had a greater solution to gauge Russia’s fight forces except for “x variety of BTGs.” When Russian firms sit at 13 untrained volunteers, 90% understrength, it’s clear the time period “BTG” has zero that means.
As for as we speak’s progress, the larger story continues to be the Popasna salient.
Nevertheless, this nook of Ukraine has one thing we haven’t seen anyplace else this conflict—hills. For a military that has struggled to advance on flat terrain, this can current an entire new problem.
We’ll check out the world’s geography in a future replace.
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kos
All that motion Mark noticed earlier as we speak, round Kharkiv’s Rubizhne, seems it was Russian advances.
The Popasna salient is extra protected against Ukrainian artillery than the Izyum one, however the space is geographically hillier, providing extra safety to defenders. And people traces are beginning to stretch out, and we all know what occurs to Russian advances when their traces stretch out. Simply evaluate the scale of the Izyum salient to the increasing Popasna one.
