The boys’s basketball choice committee had a simple job on the high of the bracket this yr. The 2025 NCAA Match might need one of the best assortment of No. 1 seeds in March Insanity historical past.
By the numbers, it’s the greatest, at the least in faculty basketball’s superior analytics period, which dates to 1997, when Ken Pomeroy’s eponymous web site started monitoring faculty basketball knowledge. This yr’s 4 No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida — are all above 35 in adjusted effectivity margin. (Effectivity margin is decided by factors scored and allowed per 100 possessions and adjusted for schedule.) In no different yr have even two groups completed above 35. The No. 1 seeds’ web scores add as much as 144.81; final yr’s No. 1 seeds’ pre-tourney web scores totaled 117.7, and keep in mind that subject had two actually dominant groups on the high in UConn and Purdue.
Two causes for that dominance: a funneling of one of the best mid-major gamers to high-major packages by way of the switch portal, and an all-time season of offensive effectivity throughout the nation, with the groups on the high scoring at historic charges.
That’s why it’s good to largely avoid driving mid-majors too far. We’ll look again eventually yr’s match as an inflection level in faculty basketball historical past: No true mid-major superior previous the second spherical. San Diego State (Mountain West) and Gonzaga (WCC) did, however their sources are nearer to high-major packages than the faculties with which they share a convention. We’re solely two years faraway from each Florida Atlantic and San Diego State reaching the Remaining 4, however have a look at what has occurred to their rosters since:
• FAU’s total rotation with eligibility remaining is elsewhere, with Alijah Martin (Florida) and Vlad Goldin (Michigan) enjoying key roles on two extremely seeded groups.
• Stars on that San Diego State staff nonetheless left in faculty embrace Lamont Butler (now at Kentucky) and Micah Parrish (Ohio State).
Learning tourney historical past is at all times a very good information to filling out your bracket, and though it is a new period, this rule ought to maintain true: Within the years with actually elite groups close to the highest — utilizing analytics because the measuring stick — a No. 1 seed normally wins the title. A No. 1 seed has additionally received six of the final seven tournaments.
I’m virtually embarrassed at how chalk I went with my picks, however I’ve been writing all yr about how the highest tier of school basketball was traditionally good, and it’s exhausting to not let that data affect my picks. My prediction is we’ll find yourself with one of many chalkiest NCAA Tournaments ever. Which may not make for as enjoyable of a primary weekend, however the matchups within the second weekend and on the Remaining 4 may very well be epic.
South Area
• Michigan-UC San Diego is likely to be probably the most attention-grabbing matchups of the Spherical of 64. Michigan’s dread all season has been turnovers, and the Tritons rank second in Division I in defensive turnover price. The one concern for UC San Diego is its small frontcourt. Michigan is big up entrance with 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The Tritons will double the put up, however Michigan is used to coping with that, and Wolf is harmful diving to the basket. Dusty May has strong choices for coping with UC San Diego star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones between Wolf and Rubin Jones. Earlier than the bracket was launched, I used to be fairly certain I might go along with the Tritons, however the Wolverines would possibly simply have an excessive amount of up entrance. Count on this betting line to be a small one — Michigan is ranked twenty fifth at KenPom, UC San Diego thirty sixth — so in the event you’re on the lookout for an upset decide that is smart on this area, it is a great place.
• Louisville, which misplaced solely two video games in convention play, is a little bit of a shock right here on the No. 8 line, however that’s how unhealthy the ACC was this yr. The Playing cards might wrestle with Bluejays massive man Ryan Kalkbrenner, however Creighton wants environment friendly manufacturing from Steven Ashworth, and Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn is a stopper. Whoever wins that matchup will win the sport. Hepburn may be a troublesome matchup for Auburn within the second spherical; guards who excel in pick-and-roll conditions have given the Tigers some bother. If you wish to fade the No. 1 seed, which has struggled defensively currently (rating forty seventh within the final three weeks, per Bart Torvik), then that is the primary spot to think about the upset. I’m simply unsure the Playing cards have the our bodies up entrance to take care of nationwide participant of the yr candidate Johni Broome.
• Yale may very well be a stylish upset decide after knocking off Auburn a yr in the past, however bear in mind Danny Wolf was on that staff and is now at Michigan. The Aggies will seemingly face Wolf within the second spherical, and though Texas A&M’s capability to use strain and power turnovers is worrisome, Michigan has the our bodies to hold on the glass. You must rebound to beat the Aggies, and the Wolverines will get it carried out.
• Iowa State was a staff thought of Remaining 4-level good within the opening months of the season, however this isn’t the identical staff. Keshon Gilbert, who was anticipated to be the Cyclones’ greatest participant this yr, is finished for the season, coach T.J. Otzelberger introduced Sunday. The Cyclones have good depth, however they had been laboring down the stretch, shedding 4 of their final seven. Ole Miss coach Chris Beard is aware of the Cyclones from his time within the Massive 12, and his Rebels ought to be capable to deal with some physicality after enjoying within the SEC. A mini-upset right here, with the Rebels shifting on to the Candy 16.
• New Mexico is one other upset decide I thought of, however the best way to beat the Lobos is with proficient guards who can rating off the bounce. Marquette’s Kam Jones is likely to be higher at that than anybody in America.
• Michigan State has the simplest path to the Candy 16 of any No. 2 seed. To beat Auburn, you want guards who can get to the rim and evade Broome, who desires to show his hips and meet you on the basket to dam your shot. That’s a harmful technique in opposition to speedy guards like Jase Richardson and Jeremy Fears. I’m tempted to choose the Spartans or Wolverines to knock off Auburn as a result of the Tigers have misplaced a few of their magic these previous couple of weeks, however slightly humility would possibly simply be what Auburn wanted to refocus.
West Area
• Final yr the West acquired wacky, and it might occur once more this yr. Florida, Maryland and St. John’s had been all groups I thought of placing within the Remaining 4 earlier than the bracket was launched, however I made a decision over the previous couple of weeks to choose Florida as my champ, and I’m sticking with that decide. The Gators, very similar to UConn in 2024, have the toughest path, however I’m a believer in choosing what you imagine is one of the best staff. That mentioned, the considered seeing UConn within the second spherical is horrifying, as is assembly Maryland’s Crab 5 within the Candy 16, and you possibly can argue St. John’s/Texas Tech is one of the best No. 2/No. 3 seed combo in any area.
• Memphis received the AAC championship with out third-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter. His unclear standing makes me hesitant to choose the Tigers to go too far. The predictive metrics don’t love Memphis this yr (No. 51 at KenPom), and Hunter has one of the best plus-minus numbers on the staff, per CBB Analytics. Mountain West champ Colorado State, winner of 10 in a row, is without doubt one of the hottest groups within the nation and has the most effective wings within the nation in Nique Clifford. His matchup with PJ Haggerty can be a enjoyable one. The Rams might find yourself betting favorites, and the explanation I like them is Rashaan Mbemba has the energy to match up with Memphis massive man Dain Dainja.
• Drake can be a stylish upset decide, and for good motive. The Bulldogs are 3-0 in opposition to high-major groups this yr, Ben McCollum is without doubt one of the greatest coaches in faculty basketball, and he has Bennett Stirtz, whom a rival Missouri Valley coach lately informed me is one of the best guard within the nation. The Tigers depend on turnovers and like to play quick; McCollum’s groups at all times management the tempo. He additionally hasn’t misplaced within the first spherical of an NCAA Match since 2018. Granted, that’s the Division II match, nevertheless it’s truly more durable to get out of the primary spherical in D-II as a result of its bracket is cut up into eight areas by geography, which means the underside (No. 8) seed may very well be a top-20 staff in the event you occur to be in a stacked area.
• Texas Tech may very well be upset-prone relying on well being. Beginning guard Likelihood McMillian and beginning ahead Darrion Williams sat out the Massive 12 semis. I’d anticipate Williams to be again for the match, however not so certain on McMillian. I’d be tempted to place Drake within the Candy 16, however right here’s one motive to imagine in Texas Tech: Coach Grant McCasland is considered one of McCollum’s greatest mates and isn’t going to miss Drake. In truth, these groups performed a secret scrimmage within the preseason — received by Texas Tech — so the Pink Raiders already know the way good Drake is. Additionally, JT Toppin is a tough matchup for a smaller entrance line.
• Arkansas-Kansas is one other matchup that happened within the preseason. The Razorbacks received that one comfortably, nevertheless it was in Fayetteville and the Jayhawks had been with out veteran massive man Hunter Dickinson. Although this isn’t the standard Kansas staff, it was enjoying higher down the stretch, and Arkansas may very well be out of sync making an attempt to work Boogie Fland again into the lineup from a hand harm that sidelined him for 2 months.
• Kansas-St. John’s is one other sport with an ideal storyline. Two years in the past, Invoice Self recruited Dickinson out of the portal, and his addition pushed out Zuby Ejiofor, who has emerged as a star for the Johnnies. Count on this sport to go very similar to Kansas’ current loss at Houston. Kansas turned the ball over too typically in opposition to the Cougars, and it’ll do it once more in a low-scoring sport that St. John’s will win.
• The Candy 16 on this area needs to be superior. Maryland will play with Florida for about half-hour however ultimately put on down in opposition to the deepest entrance line in faculty basketball. St. John’s is without doubt one of the few opponents that may give Texas Tech a tough time discovering advantageous matchups for JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. If the Pink Raiders get sizzling from 3, they may pull off the upset. They had been the one staff to beat Houston in Massive 12 play, however their well being is a priority.
• This units up a regional ultimate that can be must-watch tv, with Florida star Walter Clayton going through his outdated coach Rick Pitino — Clayton began his profession at Iona — and one of many sport’s all-time greatest coaches squaring off in opposition to considered one of its greatest younger ones, Todd Golden. The Gators needs to be ready from the three video games they performed in opposition to one other blue-collar staff with a dominant protection in Tennessee. (Florida received two of three.) St. John’s is likely to be the protection greatest outfitted to sluggish the Gators, however Florida’s 3-point taking pictures would be the distinction.
East Area
• Oregon-Liberty is without doubt one of the few spots the place I went with an upset. Like Drake, Liberty can management the tempo and is without doubt one of the greatest 3-point taking pictures groups within the nation. Oregon prefers to play with tempo. It’s not normally a very good technique to wager in opposition to Geese coach Dana Altman in March, however Ritchie McKay is without doubt one of the mid-major degree’s greatest coaches, and that is one of the best staff he’s taken to the match since 2019 when Liberty upset Mississippi State within the first spherical.
• VCU is a regarding matchup for BYU. It’s going to take an excellent defensive staff to knock off the Cougars, and that’s what VCU is. However BYU was on a roll lately till it misplaced by 20 to Houston within the Massive 12 semis, and I’m simply going to chalk that as much as the very fact enjoying Houston is not like enjoying anybody else in faculty basketball. Below first-year coach Kevin Younger, BYU has the most effective offenses within the nation and has been enjoying with a ton of confidence.
• Wisconsin-BYU may very well be probably the most entertaining video games of the match. Each groups shoot numerous 3s, play with lovely ball motion and are strong however not elite on the defensive finish. The Badgers are the marginally higher staff and fear about BYU’s capability to decelerate John Tonje, however I’ve to choose some sort of upset, and BYU has been enjoying extra like a top-three seed as of late. That is near a coin flip.
• Saint Mary’s might give Alabama points if it will possibly management the tempo, however the Gaels would want to hit double-digit 3s to maintain up. They haven’t carried out that since Jan. 11.
• If you wish to decide Duke to get upset, the Candy 16 is likely to be an honest spot. Duke beat Arizona by 14 in Tucson earlier this season, however the Wildcats have improved as a lot as anybody since November, largely due to the emergence of Henri Veesaar. The Wildcats’ bigs are athletic sufficient to at the least match up with Cooper Flagg, however it might take Caleb Love’s going nuclear to drag off the upset. I’m tempted however finally an excessive amount of of a believer on this Duke staff.
• Talking of Duke, some would possibly fade the Blue Devils due to the weak ACC they dominated. Let me remind you that Gonzaga has made the nationwide championship sport twice popping out of the West Coast Convention. If something, the simpler schedule helped Jon Scheyer discover one other asset. I’m unsure he would have experimented with enjoying freshman sharpshooter Isaiah Evans if Duke was enjoying in a league just like the SEC.
• Duke-Alabama may very well be one other nice Elite Eight sport. My fear for the Crimson Tide is Grant Nelson’s well being. Nelson injured his knee in opposition to Florida within the SEC match semifinals, and Alabama will want him at 100% to knock off Duke. The Crimson Tide are one other staff with the dimensions and athleticism up entrance to take care of the Blue Devils, however Duke wing Kon Knueppel may very well be a matchup drawback. The dimensions and energy of Sion James might additionally give Crimson Tide main scorer Mark Sears some points. I wouldn’t blame anybody for selecting Alabama to get again to the Remaining 4, however Duke and Florida had been the 2 groups I knew pre-bracket I used to be taking at the least to the Remaining 4, and I’m not budging off that technique.
Midwest Area
• Houston can not love the concept of seeing Gonzaga, No. 9 at KenPom, within the second spherical. The Zags have made 9 consecutive Candy 16s and at all times appear to be peaking in March. However the Zags misplaced to Saint Mary’s twice in low-possession video games, and Houston has taken its elite protection to a different degree.
• My buddy Seth Davis took Excessive Level and McNeese within the Spherical of 64 on this area, and I used to be tempted to do the identical. Will Wade’s Cowboys performed Alabama and Mississippi State shut within the nonconference, and the expertise hole isn’t going to be that massive in opposition to Clemson. I’m going with Excessive Level for a number of causes. Excessive Level has the most effective offenses on the mid-major degree. The Panthers, coached by former Creighton assistant Alan Huss, make 57.4 % of their 2s, and Purdue has struggled defensively contained in the arc this yr with out Zach Edey, rating 350th out of 364 D-I groups in 2-point share protection. The well being of Fletcher Loyer, who injured his elbow within the Boilermakers’ Massive Ten match loss to Michigan, can also be a priority. Excessive Level will get by Purdue, however I’m sticking with my rule of no mid-majors previous the second spherical.
• Illinois has been a wild experience this yr. Each time I begin to imagine within the Illini, they provide me good motive to leap off the bandwagon. However they’ve been significantly better with a wholesome Tomislav Ivisic, and he was beginning to play higher till the loss to Maryland within the Massive Ten quarterfinal. Kentucky, in the meantime, is limping into the match and has been injury-riddled all season. If Lamont Butler had been again to his standard self, I’d possibly lean Kentucky, nevertheless it doesn’t seem to be his shoulder is ever going to be the identical.
• Tennessee was the one No. 2 seed I used to be satisfied I wouldn’t decide to make the Elite Eight a couple of week in the past, however then I watched the SEC match. The Vols’ offense appears to have new life with Jordan Gainey catching hearth. UCLA is sweet sufficient to drag off the second-round upset. We already watched the Illini virtually beat Tennessee in mid-December, when Gainey helped the Vols escape Champaign with a buzzer-beater. I wouldn’t blame somebody for falling for the Illini, however I’m betting on expertise.
• Houston-Tennessee is a Spider-Man meme Elite Eight matchup: outdated rosters, legendary coaches, nice defenses and offenses that depend on shot-making guards. I simply belief Houston’s guards to persistently make photographs at a better clip. That is Kelvin Sampson’s greatest offensive staff at Houston, and Milos Uzan, who starred within the Massive 12 title sport, would be the distinction on this one as effectively. However if you wish to deviate from my foolish chalky methods, this is likely to be a great place. Sampson informed me Saturday he thinks the 4 greatest SEC groups is likely to be the 4 greatest groups within the nation, so possibly we should always hearken to him. However I’m betting on the Cougars, who will enter this match (largely) wholesome for the primary time since 2021, a yr after they made the Remaining 4.
(Picture of Alijah Martin: James Gilbert / Getty Photographs)
