Authored by Pepe Escobar,
It’s a stunning Tuscan winter morning, and I’m contained in the legendary Dominican church of Santa Maria Novella, based within the early thirteenth century and eventually consecrated in 1420, in a really particular place in Historical past of Artwork: proper in entrance of one of many monochrome frescos painted in 1447-1448 by grasp of perspective Paolo Uccello, depicting the Common Deluge.
Paolo Uccello: Common Deluge. 1448 fresco at Santa Maria Novella, Florence. Picture by Pepe Escobar
It’s as if Paolo Uccello was depicting us – in our present occasions of bother. So impressed by neoplatonic famous person Marsilio Ficino – immortalized in an elegant pink gown by Ghirlandaio on the Cappella Tornabuoni – I attempted to drag off a again to the longer term and ideally think about who and what Paolo Uccello would characteristic in his depiction of our present deluge.
Let’s begin with the positives. 2024 was the Yr of the BRICS – with the advantage for all of the accomplishments going for the tireless work of the Russian presidency.
2024 was additionally the Yr of the Axis of Resistance – till the serial blows suffered in the course of the previous few months, a critical problem which can propel its rejuvenation.
And 2024 was the yr that outlined the lineaments of the endgame within the proxy battle in Ukraine: what stays to be seen is how deep the “rules-based worldwide order” can be buried within the black soil of Novorossiya.
Now let’s flip to the auspicious prospects forward. 2025 would be the yr of consolidation of China because the paramount geoeconomics power on the planet.
It will likely be the yr the place the defining battle of the twenty first century – Eurasia v. NATOstan – can be sharpened in an array of unpredictable vectors.
And it is going to be the yr of advancing, interlocking connectivity corridors – the defining consider Eurasia integration.
Not accidentally Iran is central to this interlocking connectivity – from the Strait of Hormuz (by means of which transits, day by day, at the least 23% of the world’s oil) to the port of Chabahar, which hyperlinks West Asia with South Asia.
Connectivity corridors to look at are the return of one of many high Pipelineistan sagas, the 1,800 km-long Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline; the Worldwide North South Transportation Hall (INSTC), which hyperlinks three BRICS (Russia-Iran-India) and several other aspiring BRICS companions; the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC), the flagship Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI) mission; and final however not least, the quick advancing Northern Sea Route (or Northern Silk Highway, because the Chinese language name it), which can finally grow to be the most cost effective and quickest various to the Suez canal.
A couple of days earlier than the beginning of Trump 2.0 in Washington, Russia and Iran will lastly, formally signal a complete strategic partnership deal in Moscow, over two years within the making: as soon as once more, a key deal between two high BRICS, with immense, cascading repercussions in Eurasia integration phrases.
A very sealed channel of negotiation
Dmitri Trenin, revered member of Russia’s Overseas and Protection Coverage Council, has what’s to this point probably the most realist highway map for an appropriate finish of the proxy battle in Ukraine.
“Acceptable” doesn’t even start to explain it – as a result of from the viewpoint of the collective West political “elites” which guess the farm and the financial institution on this battle, nothing is appropriate besides Russia’s strategic defeat, which can by no means occur.
Because it stands, President Putin is in truth containing elite sectors in Moscow who favor not solely chopping off the top of the snake however the physique as effectively.
Trump for his half has lower than zero incentive to be dragged into an additional quagmire; go away that to the clueless European chihuahuas.
So a attainable drive in the direction of a wobbly “peace” settlement additionally fits the International Majority – to not point out China, which understands how battle is dangerous for enterprise (at the least in case you’re not within the weaponizing racket).
With regards to an at all times attainable “existential” escalation, we’re not out of the woods but; however there are nonetheless three weeks left for some main terror-fueled coup, as in a false flag.
The primary two months of 2025 can be completely decisive, in relation to sketching a attainable compromise.
Elena Panina from RUSSTRAT has supplied a concise, and sobering, strategic evaluation of what could pan out.
What Trump basically craves, like a trashy McDonald’s burger, is to appear to be the last word Alpha Male. So Putin’s tactical negotiating technique won’t be targeted on undermining Trump’s powerful man act. The issue is find out how to pull it off with out undermining Trump’s pop star energy – and with out including extra gas to the NATOstan warmongering pyre.
Putin holds an array of trump playing cards near his chest – associated to Europe, the Brits, China, Ukraine itself and the International South as a complete.
Figuring out spheres of affect can be a part of a attainable settlement. The factor is not any particular particulars ought to be leaked – and should be stored impermeable to Western intel.
Meaning, as Panina notes, Trump needing a very sealed channel of negotiation with Putin, which even the MI6 can not crack.
A tall order, as privileged Zio-con silos throughout the Deep State are dizzy with the most recent Previous Testomony psycho-pathological victories in Lebanon and Syria, and the way in which they enfeebled Tehran. But that doesn’t imply the Iran-Russia-China-BRICS hyperlink is in jeopardy.
The dynamics are set; tread rigorously
Putin and the Safety Council ought to be able to implement a fairly advanced, step-by-step diplomatic recreation, as they know that the trifecta of defeated, supremely indignant Democrats, Brits and Bankova will apply most stress on Trump and switch him into “an enemy of America” or some related crap.
Moscow will settle for no truce and no freeze: solely an actual answer.
It that doesn’t work, the battle will proceed within the battlefield, and Moscow has no issues with that – or with extra escalation. The ultimate humiliation of the Empire of Chaos will then be whole.
In the meantime, Chilly Struggle 2.0 between China and the U.S. will advance extra on the pop sphere than in substance. The sharpest Chinese language analysts know that the true competitors just isn’t over ideology – as within the authentic Chilly Struggle – however over know-how, from AI to upgrading seamless provide chains.
Furthermore, Trump 2.0, at the least in precept, has lower than zero curiosity in unleashing a proxy battle – Ukraine-style – on China in Taiwan and the South China Sea. China has far more geoeconomic assets than Russia.
So it’s not precisely intriguing that Trump is floating the thought of a G2 between the U.S. and China. The Deep State blob will see it as the last word plague – and combat it to demise. What’s already sure is assuming this goes forward, the European poodles can be left drowning in a unclean swamp.
Nicely, political “elites” that appoint braindead specimens just like the Medusa von der Mendacity and the batshit loopy Estonian chick as high representatives of the EU; who begin a battle in opposition to their most essential power provider; who absolutely assist a genocide broadcast 24/7 to the entire planet; who’re obsessed with eradicating the tradition which has outlined them; and who at greatest pay solely lip service to democracy and freedom of speech, these “elites” do should wallow in filth.
On the Syrian tragedy, the very fact is Putin is aware of who the true enemy is; definitely not a bunch of Salafi-jihadi head-chopping mercenaries. And the Sultan in Ankara can also be not the enemy; from Moscow’s perspective, for all his lofty goals of changing “Central Asia” with “Turkestan” in Turkiye’s faculty textbooks, he’s a minor geoeconomic and even geopolitical participant.
To paraphrase the inestimable Michael Hudson – maybe our Marsilio Ficino dressed by Paolo Uccello as a author in an elegant pink gown – it’s as if on this pre-deluge juncture American elites have been saying, “The one answer is whole battle with Russia and China”; Russia is saying, “We hope there’s peace in Ukraine and West Asia”; and China is saying, “We wish peace, not battle.
That will not be sufficient for reaching a compromise – any compromise. So the dynamics are set: the U.S. ruling class will maintain imposing situations of chaos whereas Russia, China and BRICS will maintain testing within the “BRICS lab” de-dollarization fashions, various set ups to the IMF and World Financial institution, and finally even an alternative choice to NATO.
An anarchy and Struggle of Terror cornucopia on one aspect; cool-headed, coordinated realism on the opposite. Be ready – for something. From Renaissance Florence, one of many – few – peaks of humanity, now dwelling in reminiscence, tread rigorously throughout this flame-filled 2025.
