2:00PM Water Cooler 8/2/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, I’m going so as to add some extra beneath Politics, as a result of if I don’t catch up now, I by no means will! –lambert UPDATE Completed. I bought absorbed and doubtless added an excessive amount of…

Fowl Tune of the Day

Purple Martin, Georgia, United States. Recording made in 1955! One other species of songbird.

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Biden Administration

“Opinion: Nancy Pelosi: Why I’m main a congressional delegation to Taiwan” [WaPo]. No suspense within the Publish “newsroom,” I see:

At present, America should keep in mind that vow. We should stand by Taiwan, which is an island of resilience. Taiwan is a pacesetter in governance: at the moment, in addressing the covid-19 pandemic and championing environmental conservation and local weather motion. It’s a chief in peace, safety and financial dynamism: with an entrepreneurial spirit, tradition of innovation and technological prowess which can be envies of the world.

But, disturbingly, this vibrant, sturdy democracy — named one of many freest on the earth by Freedom Home and proudly led by a lady, President Tsai Ing-wen — is beneath menace.

In recent times, Beijing has dramatically intensified tensions with Taiwan. The Folks’s Republic of China (PRC) has ramped up patrols of bombers, fighter jets and surveillance plane close to and even over Taiwan’s air protection zone, main the U.S. Protection Division to conclude that China’s military is “possible making ready for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by pressure.”

The PRC has additionally taken the struggle into our on-line world, launching scores of assaults on Taiwan authorities businesses every day. On the similar time, Beijing is squeezing Taiwan economically, pressuring international companies to chop ties with the island, intimidating nations that cooperate with Taiwan, and clamping down on tourism from the PRC.

Within the face of the Chinese language Communist Celebration’s (CCP) accelerating aggression, our congressional delegation’s go to needs to be seen as an unequivocal assertion that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic associate, because it defends itself and its freedom.

Our go to — one among a number of congressional delegations to the island — by no means contradicts the long-standing one-China coverage, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. America continues to oppose unilateral efforts to vary the established order.

Our go to is a part of our broader journey to the Pacific — together with Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan — targeted on mutual safety, financial partnership and democratic governance.

Shouldn’t we lose the warfare in Ukraine first? In the meantime:

RT @YuanTalks: #Chinese #military will maintain workout routines close to #Taiwan on Aug 4 – 7, reported official Xinhua Information Company late Tue after US Home of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/PahwgD7fSz

— COT-Report (@COTReport_de) August 2, 2022

Oh, look. A cauldron.

* * *

Higher than nothing. However late. And Fb?!

Tomorrow @SenSanders is holding on-line occasion w/ White Home COVID-19 Response Coordinator @AshishKJha46!

Sanders is looking for inquiries to ask! Add them under. Nice alternative to flag want for masks mandates & different COVID prevention efforts & extra! https://t.co/vwrvjM80ZO

— MandateMasksUS (@mandatemasksus) August 1, 2022

Right here is the hyperlink to the Fb web page.

2022

* * *

PA: Does Dr. Oz have a marketing campaign workers? Do they not have media consumers in New Jersey?

Fb advert spending in #PASen, Might 1 – Current:

@JohnFetterman: $533,719
@DrOz: $0

Unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/tJJ3QVulVn

— FWIW (@FWIWnews) August 1, 2022

PA: On the path, although maybe not very:

Elizabeth’s Riverfest Parade to help the fireplace division pic.twitter.com/ZmyyWQ3rql

— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) July 30, 2022

WI: “A Democrat who dropped out of the Wisconsin Senate race is giving the celebration a $600,000 shock reward” [NBC]. “The Milwaukee Bucks govt who dropped out of the Wisconsin Senate race this week is in a giving temper. After he instantly threw his help behind fellow Democrat Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, Alex Lasry is now providing one other reward to spice up his former rival. Lasry mentioned he’ll use $584,000 value of beforehand bought airtime to run assault adverts in opposition to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.” • This doesn’t occur on a regular basis?

WY: “WATCH: Liz Cheney’s unpopularity grows, referred to as ‘a humiliation’ by Wyoming voters” [The Gazette]. “‘Can I cuss? Hell no,’ mentioned Wyoming resident Sharon Tuggle bluntly earlier than noting Cheney’s work on the Jan. 6 committee. ‘She’s achieved us soiled.’ In 2020, former President Donald Trump gained round 70% of the vote in Wyoming. He stays common within the state. ‘Take a look at how [Cheney’s] achieved Trump,’ Tuggle mentioned. ‘She’s imagined to be supporting him. She’s a Republican, for crying out loud.’” • I’m picturing a type of Mike and Joe scenario on MSNBC, besides with Liz Cheney and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

2024

“Trump beats Biden, Harris in hypothetical 2024 match-up: ballot” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump leads President Biden and Vice President Harris in hypothetical 2024 presidential match-ups, in keeping with a brand new Harvard CAPS-Harris Ballot survey launched solely to The Hill on Monday. The ballot discovered that if the 2024 election had been held in the present day, 45 % of respondents would vote for Trump in a race in opposition to Biden, who attracted the help of 41 % of respondents, whereas 14 % had been not sure or didn’t know. In a hypothetical Trump-Harris match-up, Trump’s lead expands to 7 proportion factors. Forty-seven % mentioned they’d help Trump, in comparison with 40 % for Harris and 13 % who had been not sure or didn’t know. Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Ballot survey, famous how Biden can be a weaker candidate in a race in opposition to Trump in the present day than he carried out in 2020.” • Ah, Mark Penn, reviled by Clintonites, maybe even justly. After all, all that is earlier than the trouble to make Biden appear Churchillian. Go the victory gin. Liberal Democrat: “However Trump is a criminal!” And–

““I’ve Delivered”: New Disclosures Demolish President Biden’s Denials on Hunter Dealings” [The Hill]. “New disclosures are demolishing the continued denials of President Biden that he had no data and nothing to do together with his son’s enterprise pursuits. The emails (reviewed by Fox and The Every day Mail) embrace exchanges with no less than 14 of Hunter Biden’s enterprise associates whereas Joe Biden was vice chairman…. There are emails of Ukrainian and different international purchasers thanking Hunter Biden for arranging conferences together with his father. There are images from dinners and conferences that tie President Biden to those figures, together with a 2015 dinner with a gaggle of Hunter Biden’s Russian and Kazakh purchasers. Folks apparently had been informed to keep away from straight referring to President Biden. In a single electronic mail, Tony Bobulinski, then a enterprise associate of Hunter’s, was instructed by Biden affiliate James Gilliar to not communicate of the previous veep’s connection to any transactions: “Don’t point out Joe being concerned, it’s solely when u [sic] are head to head, I do know u [sic] know that however they’re paranoid.” As an alternative, the emails apparently discuss with President Biden with code names akin to “Celtic” or “the large man.” In a single, “the large man” is mentioned as probably receiving a ten % lower on a cope with a Chinese language vitality agency; different emails reportedly discuss with Hunter Biden paying parts of his father’s bills and taxes.” • ”Say a prayer for the frequent foot soldier.” In any case, what music amongst us has grown as much as be their father’s bagman?

“Donald Trump’s Nice Escape: How The Former President Solved His Debt Disaster” [Forbes]. “he day Donald Trump left the White Home, his enterprise was dealing with $900 million of debt coming due within the subsequent 4 years. Working by way of these loans would have been a major enterprise for any agency, however the Trump Group was contending with further challenges. Deutsche Financial institution, Trump’s longtime lender, was reportedly trying to finish its relationship with the actual property mogul. Two different monetary establishments, Signature Financial institution and Skilled Financial institution, had unfold the phrase that they had been chopping ties within the wake of January 6, 2021. In the meantime, the Manhattan district legal professional was getting near charging the Trump Group with a collection of monetary crimes, together with falsifying enterprise data, conspiracy and fraud. Quickly loads of individuals had been trumpeting the tip of an period.” The partitions had been closing in! Extra: “Within the final 15 months, the Trump Group—beneath indictment, with its founder characterizing the fees as a part of a “political Witch Hunt by the Radical Left Demo­crats”—has managed to transform nearly all $900 million of the debt it had coming due. Two of its most troublesome Deutsche Financial institution loans, totaling $295 million, at the moment are off the books. The previous president offered his money-losing lodge in Washington, D.C., to an funding store linked to former Main League Baseball star Alex Rodriguez and retired boxing champion Floyd Mayweather, thanks to assist from a agency tied to pc billionaire Michael Dell. Trump additionally refinanced $125 million of debt in opposition to a Miami golf resort and reworked a $100 million mortgage at Trump Tower. Trump’s enterprise nonetheless has loads of debt—an estimated $1.1 billion in all—however now most of it doesn’t come due till 2028 or later. Two loans that haven’t been refinanced—a $13 million mortgage in opposition to a property on Third Avenue in Manhattan and a $45 million mortgage in opposition to a tower in Chicago—mature in 2024. However neither of these needs to be too troublesome to pay again. In any case, Trump now has an estimated $375 million in money readily available, greater than 3 times the sum he had at any level throughout his presidency, due to the spate of dealmaking.” • You gotta respect the grift!

“The Memo: No, actually — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?” [The Hill]. “Ocasio-Cortez has conspicuously declined to decide to endorsing Biden for a second time period. In a CNN interview final month, she informed Dana Bash, ‘We’ll cross that bridge after we get to it.’ The New York congresswoman, who shot to fame in 2018 when she defeated then-Rep. Joseph Crowley in a Democratic main, is already a fundraising juggernaut. She might simply increase the funds to run a aggressive marketing campaign. She additionally has an infinite social media following — greater than 13 million followers on Twitter alone. Pollsters have begun testing her title amongst different way more seasoned figures and, whereas the degrees of help are modest for now, she is plainly within the combine. An Echelon Insights ballot this month, asking Democratic-leaning voters who they’d help if Biden eschewed a second time period, put her in sixth place — however in a tightly bunched group of candidates, solely 2 proportion factors behind third-placed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led that ballot…. Two different elements recommend an Ocasio-Cortez marketing campaign shouldn’t be written off out of hand. First: Sure, she is sufficiently old to run. The minimal age to be president is 35. Ocasio-Cortez will have fun her thirty fifth birthday roughly three weeks earlier than Election Day 2024. The second is that she has lengthy leveled a broad critique of the Democratic Celebration management in Washington — in abstract, that it’s too cozy with wealthy, highly effective pursuits and never responsive sufficient to the wants of its personal voters.” • A “broad critique” by Beltway requirements, I feel. Nonetheless, wouldn’t the Democrat gerontocracy’s intracranial splatterfest be enjoyable?

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Mainstream Democrats Picked Henry Cuellar. Look The place It Obtained Them” [Teen Vogue]. “Final week, Cuellar was referred to as out for co-sponsoring a invoice earlier in July which many see as a weakening of the Truthful Labor Requirements Act of 1938, alongside two Republicans. The so-called ‘Employee Flexibility and Alternative Act‘ amends the act, and establishes ‘employee flexibility agreements’ which serve to exempt gig employees from the federal minimal wage, preempting state- or city-level legal guidelines that enshrine a minimal wage. This might have disastrous penalties for American employees. As defined by Jacobin columnist Liza Featherstone, ‘The invoice creates complete new methods for employers to get out of paying minimal wage and extra time, extending the gig economic system’s stress and chaos to thousands and thousands extra employees.’” • It bought them precisely the place they wished to be: As soon as that they had two rotating villains: Manchin and Sinema. Now that Manchin is changing into a face as a substitute of a heel, he must be changed: Therefore, Cuellar.

“Slice of Income From North Carolina On line casino Goes to Kinfolk of Politicians” [Wall Street Journal]. “An organization benefiting from a brand new North Carolina tribal on line casino gave shares to politicians’ members of the family and high-profile political figures because the on line casino’s backers had been looking for federal approval for the undertaking, in keeping with interviews and paperwork reviewed by The Wall Avenue Journal. One of many stakes is held by John B. Clyburn, a brother of Rep. James Clyburn, the highly effective South Carolina Democratic congressman who launched a invoice in Congress final yr that smoothed the best way for the brand new Catawba Two Kings On line casino. Different stakes went to Michael Haley, husband of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a Republican who served within the Trump administration as ambassador to the United Nations; Butch Bowers, a lawyer who has represented each Ms. Haley and former President Donald Trump; and Patti Solis Doyle, a Democratic political operative who helped handle campaigns in 2008 for Hillary Clinton and then-vice presidential candidate Joe Biden, in keeping with the paperwork. The stakes, held not directly by way of one other entity, gave every of the recipients a slice of a slot-machine leasing firm referred to as Kings Mountain Gear Provide LLC, whose main shareholders embrace monetary backers of the on line casino or their associates, in keeping with the paperwork. The corporate will get 20 cents of each $1 in income the on line casino generates from tons of of slot machines. The shareholdings are small—far lower than 1% possession for every recipient, the paperwork present. These concerned deny any quid professional quo.” • I don’t assume individuals like Clyburn turned what they’re in the present day by turning down something, irrespective of how “small.” Why take shares in any respect, for pity’s sake?

“How AIPAC Betrayed Its Former Help for Democracy” [Tikkun]. “I’m gone my years of cooperating with AIPAC. However, I defended it on no less than one event. In early 2019, when Rep. Ilhan Omar tweeted that help for Israel is ‘all concerning the Benjamins,’ I joined those that condemned her assertion as antisemitic (she later apologized). With respect to AIPAC, the implicit goal of her tweet, many issues could have gone awry however not the truth that it had by no means endorsed or contributed to a marketing campaign.” Tediously literal-minded! Extra: “This was at all times a degree of satisfaction with the group. They had been there to teach. The ‘PAC’ within the title stood for ‘Public Affairs Committee,’ not ‘Political Motion Committee.’ There have been no Benjamins concerned. That each one modified this yr when AIPAC based the United Democracy Undertaking (UDP) to endorse candidates and channel darkish cash to help them.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Do We Get the Authorities We Deserve?” [Wisdom of Crowds]. “The truth is that even in superior democracies akin to our personal, it turns into difficult to imagine in small-d democracy beneath situations of duress. We, as Individuals, are at the moment dwelling beneath such situations. By this I imply one thing fairly particular. When electoral outcomes appear personally threatening, as a result of a lot (or an excessive amount of) is at stake, then it turns into simpler for one to place apart his or her supposed dedication to democracy. We’re seeing a model of this with a Republican Celebration that, to varied levels, has indicated discomfort with—or outright opposition to—an election end result in 2020 that was to not its liking. I don’t assume Democrats would have been almost as dangerous, however I do assume that the counterfactual historical past of a Trump victory in 2020 would have created some extent of political instability, pushed by the lack of tens of thousands and thousands of Democrats to return to phrases with the legitimacy of a second-term Trump presidency.”• Not controversial, provided that the Democrat response to 2016 was RussiaGate.

“RNC hyperlinks up with ‘Cease the Steal’ advocates to coach ballot employees” [Politico]. • What actually frosts me about this type of story is that’s begins and ends with the aghastitude. Why or why don’t Democrats compete on this turf? What’s holding them up?

#COVID19

As readers know, I stan for nasal sprays and vaccines:

“Evaluating the efficacy and security of a novel prophylactic nasal spray within the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 an infection: A multi-centre, double blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial” [ScienceDirect]. “This examine experiences the event of a prophylactic nasal spray focused to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that’s easy to supply and simply inexpensive…. The nasal spray was administered 3 occasions day by day over a forty five day course…. The take a look at agent considerably decreased SARS-CoV-2 an infection in healthcare employees, with 62% fewer infections when in comparison with placebo. It was discovered to be protected and properly tolerated and gives a novel therapy choice for prophylaxis in opposition to SARS-CoV-2 an infection.” • I’ve to say, “Don’t do that at residence,” however listed below are the elements (although not, naturally, their proportions):

The parts of the take a look at spray embrace sterile water, polyethylene glycol 400, poloxamer 188, xylitol, disodium hydrogen phosphate, sodium chloride, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, ginger oil, eucalyptus oil, basil oil, clove oil, sodium hydrogen carbonate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, sodium hyaluronate, calcium chloride dihydrate, benzalkonium chloride, magnesium chloride hexahydrate, potassium chloride, glycerol, and zinc chloride.

Ring any bells with our extra medically aggressive readers? The complete piece is properly value a learn, as a result of it has comparability to different research of nasal sprays. It’s principally written in English (not jargon).

“Subsequent Technology Covid Vaccine Replace: Intranasal & Different Mucosal Vaxes” [Hilda Bastian, Absolutely Maybe]. Bastian’s periodically up to date checklist. “There are 88 mucosal vaccines on this publish with preclinical and/or scientific trial outcomes, or registered trials—16 greater than in my final publish…. There may be nonetheless only one mucosal Covid vax rolled out—the Razi Cov Pars vaccine in Iran. However a number of vaccines have superior.” •

“Three Urgent Questions About Monkeypox: Unfold, Vaccination, Remedy” [New York Times]. Provided that smallpox vaccines work for monkeypox: “In 2018, the F.D.A. authorized a drug to deal with smallpox referred to as tecovirimat, or TPOXX, primarily based on information from animal research. There are solely restricted information on its use in individuals. Provide just isn’t a difficulty: The nationwide stockpile holds about 1.7 million doses. But the drug has been troublesome to amass, and that has meant that ambiguities about how properly and for whom the drug works have endured at the same time as case counts rise. As a result of tecovirimat just isn’t authorized particularly to deal with monkeypox, it will possibly solely be prescribed by way of a cumbersome “investigational drug protocol” that, till just lately, required docs to ship the C.D.C. detailed experiences, a journal maintained by the sufferers to file their progress and images of the lesions. With so many hurdles, many clinics didn’t provide tecovirimat in any respect; even physicians at well-funded establishments had been managing to deal with solely two or three sufferers per day.” • Groundpox Day.

Our new monkeypox Czar:

Daskalakis is, naturally, a droplet goon–

“Monkeypox: Avoiding the Errors of Previous Infectious Illness Epidemics” [Demetre Daskalakis, R. Paul McClung, Leandro Mena, et al, Annals of Internal Medicine]. “Monkeypox virus an infection might be transmitted by way of cutaneous routes throughout shut or intimate contact with an individual whose lesions will not be but crusted over and healed, through fomites which have had contact with an individual with monkeypox, and by respiratory droplets amongst individuals with shut, sustained face-to-face contact.” However as we linked to yesterday:

So, apparently, Monkeypox is airborne (“unfold by way of the air after they cough, sneeze, “). Now, I’ve very robust priors on airborne transmission, as readers know. So I’m not making a robust declare, right here (i.e., I haven’t seen that Monkeypox fills a room like cigarette smoke). However once more, I really feel like I’ve seen this film earlier than: Blended messaging at the most effective, no actual principle of transmission that the general public can perceive and act upon, and no investigation besides by out-of-paradigm outsiders. (It’s not referred to as “droplet dogma” for nothing.) How I want to be flawed!

Maskstravaganza: Helpful response to “masks don’t work”:

“This DIY field helps clear indoor air of the coronavirus. Why aren’t extra individuals utilizing them?” [Los Angeles Times]. “‘Folks aren’t embracing any of the opposite issues that may avert catastrophe on this pandemic,’ mentioned LeVine, a 49-year-old hashish firm govt with {an electrical} engineering diploma who began constructing trippy do-it-yourself filtration packing containers as a pastime. ‘Possibly I can create a approach to clear the air that individuals need in the midst of the room.’ Because the pandemic drags on, not only for aerosol scientists and epidemiologists, however for a seize bag of involved residents like LeVine.” • To reply the query, extra individuals aren’t utilizing Corsi-Rosenthal packing containers as a result of Dr. Jill Biden by no means went on the At present Present and assembled one, within the midst of some adoring faculty children. This isn’t laborious.

“Consultants help this DIY undertaking to guard your post-COVID-19 lungs throughout wildfire season” [Loma Linda University]. • Simple-to-follow instructions for constructing a CR field.

One other ardour undertaking:

Do what thou wilt shall be the entire of the legislation, or, Aleister Crowley as Ur-Libertarian:

If you happen to missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) take into account most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we have now.

Case Rely

Case depend for the US:

Lambert right here: This tapewatcher is barely befuddled by the case information. Put aside the worrying assumption that the curves for actual instances are the identical form because the curves for reported instances, despite the fact that there’s nothing to show this. However instances are not going by way of the roof, no less than by way of case reporting. Information artifact? “Vaccine wall”? Why this gradual, sawtooth sample when BA.5 is thought to be very infectious? Talking of immunity partitions:

• “Immunity partitions” [Eric Topol, Ground Truths]. “There have been marked variations for a way the inhabitants of various nations reply to the Covid pandemic, maybe finest exemplified within the BA.5 variant wave…. The “immunity wall” of a inhabitants is an combination of many elements that embrace demographics akin to age and comorbidities, like weight problems or diabetes. Age is particularly necessary given immunosenescence, the much less potent immune response typically mounted with superior age. For the pandemic, of specific be aware, it contains prior infections, vaccines, boosters, mixed infections and boosters (hybrid immunity) and waning of the immunity from vaccines or infections over time. … With that background, let’s probe deeper into why the patterns are so completely different between New Zealand, Australia vs South Africa, US, and plenty of different nations…. To summarize, the impression of BA.5 that I’ve described because the worst variant of the pandemic by its biologic properties is seen clinically the place there are much less intact immunity partitions, principally as a operate of prior infections and the sort (predominant variant underpinning) of infections. Our immunity wall in the US has helped present a lesser hit of BA.5, now beginning to present a plateau of hospitalizations at a degree under that of different nations in Europe, despite the fact that our vaccination and booster price within the US is considerably decrease than these nations.” • I’m not the one tape-watcher….

Keep in mind that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the actual degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~125,000 At present, it’s ~125,000 and 125,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 750,000 per day. That’s somewhat lots of instances per day, when you consider it. No less than we have now affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. (Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

The South:

A gradual upswing in the remainder of the south, beneath the Florida and Texas gyrations.

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

North Carolina and Georgia don’t have any information in the present day (therefore the gaps within the chart).

The West:

California drives the nationwide drop. This massive drop is supported by yesterday’s Walgreens positivity information (though not by wastewater. The populations for these two populations don’t essentially overlap, nevertheless.) However I’m simply unsure I can belief California information. For instance, right here is San Diego wastewater:

What do California readers assume?

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, July 31:

-0.4%. (I ponder if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if individuals encounter a sympotomatic particular person, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra more likely to get a take a look at, as a result of they imagine, appropriately, that it’s extra possible they are going to be contaminated.) What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.

Lambert right here: See Water Cooler of seven/29 for oddities with the chart on that day (like no worth in any respect for New York). We do see a fast change in slope from 7/27 to in the present day, 7/31. Nonetheless, such adjustments will not be unprecedented at a peak. Any person who is aware of the mathematics of Keynesian magnificence contests can inform me: If one particular person identified to be contaminated in a social circle causes a number of individuals to get examined, wouldn’t adjustments within the an infection price, whether or not up or down, get amplified within the testing price?

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For July 21, 2020:

Establishment, i.e. it’s a completely not-over pandemic.

Lambert right here: After the transfer from the CDC to the laughingly named ‘https://healthdata.gov,” this discover appeared: “Efficient June 22, 2022, the Group Profile Report will solely be up to date twice per week, on Wednesdays and Fridays.” So now the administration has belatedly come to the belief that we’re in a BA.5 surge, and but important information for making our private threat assessments is barely obtainable twice per week.

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser information, by county (CDC), July 29:

Enhancements all over the place!

Earlier Fast Riser information:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), July 29:

Extra inexperienced. Good!

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does however it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), July 14:

Variant information, nationwide (CDC), July 16 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 transferring alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), July 29:

I discovered this chart laborious to learn, so I filtered the output to the best (pink) and next-highest (orange) ranges (considerably like Fast Riser Counties, see on right here). What’s seen is that lots of cities are in bother; however that protection is actually patchy. Illinois, for instance, has at all times had lots of protection, however the dots cease on the Illinois border. This chart works a bit like fast riser counties: “This metric exhibits whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a website are at the moment larger or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar website. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the website; 100% means ranges are the best they’ve been on the website.” So, there’s a bunch of pink dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so meaning “ranges are the best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,055,576 1,054,422. It’s curious that deaths are fiddling and diddling similar to instances. Suggests the impact in instances is actual, regardless of the precise degree of an infection.I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like every thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings within the US fell by 605,000 from a month earlier to 10.7 million in June of 2022, the bottom in 9 months and under market expectations of 11 million. It was the third consecutive drop in job openings after a file degree in March. The most important decreases in job openings had been in retail commerce (-343,000), wholesale commerce (-82,000), and in state and native authorities training (-62,000).”

Retail: “SPAM goes on lockdown as a consequence of inflation in NYC” [New York Post (jr)]. “It’s the nation’s crises in a can. Inflation and crime have gotten so dangerous in Gotham that even low-cost meat like Spam must be locked up. At Duane Reade’s retailer within the Port Authority bus depot, the shelf-stable product — solely $3.99 a can — is now being stocked in plastic, anti-theft instances. ‘I’ve by no means seen that earlier than!’ one cashier laughed whereas utilizing a magnet to take away a can of Spam from its cage. The cashier was among the many workers, vacationers and retailer regulars shocked that the enduring blue-and-yellow cans at the moment are being stored beneath lock-and-key — some even poking enjoyable on the sight as ‘a type of Jeff Koons homage,’ per one viral tweet.”

Tech: “Court docket Rejects Google’s Try and Dismiss Rumble’s Antitrust Lawsuit, Making certain Huge Discovery” [Glenn Greenwald]. “A federal district courtroom in California on Friday denied Google’s movement to dismiss a lawsuit alleging that the Silicon Valley big is violating federal antitrust legal guidelines by stopping truthful competitors in opposition to its YouTube video platform. The lawsuit in opposition to Google, which has owned YouTube since its 2006 buy for $1.65 billion, was introduced in early 2021 by Rumble, the free speech competitor to YouTube. Its central declare is that Google’s abuse of its monopolistic stranglehold on serps to destroy all opponents to its numerous different platforms is unlawful beneath the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, which makes it illegal to ‘monopolize, or try and monopolize…any a part of the commerce or commerce among the many a number of States, or with international nations.’ It’s uncommon for antitrust fits in opposition to the 4 Large Tech company giants (Google, Fb, Apple and Amazon) to keep away from early motions to dismiss. Friday’s resolution in opposition to Google ensures that the swimsuit now proceeds to the invention stage.” • Yowza!

At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 42 Worry (earlier shut: 39 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 35 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 2 at 1:43 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Earthquakes. “A Lethal Quakes strikes the Philippines” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 189. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Now it has.

The Conservatory

Possibly I ought to have put this beneath “Zeitgeist Watch”:

I realized about “Frequent Folks” from alert reader Petal again in 2019, IIRC. Catchy tune. Right here’s a reside model:

The Gallery

The way it began (1):

The way it’s going (1):

The way it began (2):

The way it’s going (2):

I don’t even play an artwork historian on TV, but when Louise Bourgeois orginated “punk pasteup” that will be superior. Bourgeois is terrific, even the enormous spiders.

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why So Many Supercars Have Montana License Plates” [Bloomberg]. • Regulatory arbitrage, our most distinctive competence as a rustic after bloated weaponry.

Police State Watch

“Simple Cash: How Counties Are Funneling Covid Aid Funds Into New Jails” [The Nation]. “All through the nation, counties are dipping into funds from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and the Coronavirus Assist, Aid, and Financial Safety (CARES) Act to construct and develop jails and prisons. No less than 20 counties in 18 states are utilizing, or wish to use, Covid reduction cash this fashion. The issue is, their resolution to take action violates the spirit, and sure the letter, of the foundations governing how reduction cash can be utilized. These guidelines, finalized by the US Treasury earlier this yr, ban jurisdictions from utilizing Covid reduction cash to construct or develop correctional amenities. But that hasn’t stopped native officers in quite a lot of counties from pushing their initiatives by way of, spending their ARPA and CARES Act windfalls like profitable lottery tickets for long-sought expansions.”

“Worry of Rampant Crime Is Derailing New York Metropolis’s Restoration” [Bloomberg]. “Maybe nowhere has the notion of rampant crime overpowered the truth greater than in New York Metropolis, the place the homicide price has actually elevated lately however is nowhere close to the place it was within the Eighties and Nineteen Nineties. Fears of violence have now surpassed Covid considerations in the case of why employees say they gained’t return to their Manhattan places of work or trip on public transit within the monetary capital of the world. In addition to the impression on the residents of New York, there are far-reaching implications for the vacationers, traders and different individuals who convey enterprise and capital to the town’s economic system. A part of the outsized notion might be traced to the town’s new mayor, Eric Adams, whose concentrate on crime helped propel the 22-year veteran of the New York Metropolis Police Division into the job. As soon as in workplace, he staked his administration on the concept he’s uniquely suited to supply a fast repair to the advanced drawback of eradicating violence within the metropolis. Crisscrossing the town to indicate up at crime scenes massive and small, he turned well-known for delivering sermon-like admonitions in apocalyptic phrases. “We’re in an actual scary place,” Adams mentioned in a Might police briefing the place he likened the NYPD’s work to warfare deployment.”

Class Warfare

“Socioeconomic standing and public well being in Australia: A wastewater-based examine” [Environment Internationa]l. From the Summary: ” On this examine, fifteen wastewater samples masking 27% of the Australian inhabitants had been collected throughout a inhabitants Census. The samples had been analysed with a workflow using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry and chemometric instruments for non-target evaluation. Socioeconomic traits of catchment areas had been generated utilizing Geospatial Data Programs software program….. Markers of public well being (e.g., cardiac arrhythmia, heart problems, nervousness dysfunction and sort 2 diabetes) had been recognized within the wastewater samples by the proposed workflow. They had been positively correlated with descriptors of drawback in training, occupation, marital standing and revenue, and negatively correlated with descriptors of benefit in training and occupation. As well as, markers of polypropylene glycol (PPG) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) associated compounds had been positively correlated with housing and occupation drawback. Excessive constructive correlations had been discovered between separated and divorced individuals and particular medication used to deal with cardiac arrhythmia, heart problems, and despair. Our sturdy non-targeted methodology together with Census information can determine relationships between biomarkers of public well being, human behaviour and way of life and socio-demographics of complete populations.” • Wastewater actually appears to be having a second as of late.

Information of the Wired

Out of field pondering:

I ponder if we might course of lots of media the identical means; maybe a change in “the present factor” would equate to a sudden change in tone or texture. This will surely be faster than truly listening to all of it.

The timeline Sluggo is in, is the most effective timeline….

… as any economist will let you know. If that had been a actual fifty-dollar invoice, anyone would have already got picked it up.

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:

IM writes: “That is from the continental divide, up in Yoho park in BC. There’s a nurse log beneath the foliage. Cool forest greens for the recent summer season days.” Beautiful gentle. Definition of “nurse log”; museum-grade nurse logs.

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the just lately concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on find out how to ship a verify. Thanks!