2:00PM Water Cooler 8/16/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Track of the Day

Western Chat-Tanager, Pueblo Viejo, Dominican Republic

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Biden Administration

“Joe Biden’s Greatest Week Ever” [New York Magazine]. “The scenario has modified with astonishing velocity. Biden has salvaged his domestic-policy agenda, his occasion’s base has snapped out of its torpor, and the financial system is exhibiting indicators it simply may pull by way of. And whereas not all these developments are his personal doing, nor do they fully extinguish the political hazard he faces, all of them redound to his profit. Within the span of some weeks, Biden’s presidency is again from the lifeless and looking out one thing near triumphant. The occasion that triggered the turnaround was the choice by 5 Republican Supreme Courtroom justices to overturn Roe v. Wade. In so doing, the Courtroom’s proper wing disregarded the recommendation of its extra cautious chief justice, John Roberts, who reportedly tried in useless to steer his colleagues towards an incrementalist technique that may keep away from a backlash. Roberts’s fears have been vindicated. One motive midterm elections nearly at all times punish the president’s occasion is that the general public has an intuition to curtail the powers of these in energy. The Dobbs resolution inverted that calculation, making a context by which Republicans have been accountable for dramatic social change and Democrats may stand for the restoration of the established order.” • Perhaps. We’ll see how the Capitol Seizure, Mar-a-Lago Raid, and Ukraine — keep in mind Ukraine? — play out together with abortion.

“Scoop: White Home to flow into Afghanistan memo defending U.S. withdrawal” [Axios]. • Biden requested for my vote together with his Afghanstan withdrawal. Then he squandered it with Ukraine. Ah nicely, nonetheless….

“First woman Dr. Jill Biden assessments constructive for Covid-19” [CNN]. • Nicely, the Bidens masks at greatest inconsistently. Additional, I’ve not seen any info on air flow within the White Home, significantly HEPA filters (although once more, and once more, inviting Corsi and Rosenthal in to assemble one among their packing containers, hopefully on nationwide tv, would do wonders for good air flow. One can solely surprise why the Administration doesn’t do that).

“The Untold Historical past of the Biden Household” [The New Yorker]. • That is terribly unhappy, and helps clarify not simply Joe Biden, Junior, however Hunter. It’s like A.A. on the size of the Oresteia, over a number of generations, with a number of households. Nicely value a learn.

2022

* * *

PA: “Fetterman Reboots US Senate Marketing campaign After Stroke-Induced Hiatus” [Bloomberg]. “Fetterman walked on stage Friday to a rousing applause from about 1,350 supporters, jam-packed in an Erie exhibition middle as “Again in Black” by rock group AC/DC blared by way of audio system. The Pennsylvania lieutenant governor had been sidelined for 3 months after struggling a stroke in mid-Could. Carrying his trademark black hoodie, sleeves rolled as much as reveal his tattooed forearms, Fetterman spoke extra softly and intentionally than he did through the main, often slurring phrases throughout a short 12-minute deal with. ‘I’m simply so grateful and so fortunate,’ Fetterman mentioned. ‘Three months in the past, I could not have made it. However now I’m standing proper right here in Erie. You will ship for us, and I’ll ship Pennsylvania for us, and I’ll clear the 51st vote within the Senate.’ Fetterman’s rally got here simply days earlier than Monday’s deadline for a candidate to drop out of the race and his occasion to exchange him on the poll. The occasion marked a public rebooting of a marketing campaign that was largely restricted to Fetterman’s residence — main Oz to mock him with a day by day ‘basement tracker’ that ended Thursday after 91 days. ‘Wait, am I in Erie?’ Fetterman mentioned as he took the stage together with his spouse Gisele by his aspect. ‘Or have I obtained 1,400 individuals in my basement?’”

PA: Level:

My grandfather as soon as informed me that crudité was his favourite factor to eat after an extended, onerous day within the metal mill pic.twitter.com/aZH9hrQ2L3

— Mike Mikus (@MikeMikusPA) August 15, 2022

PA: Counterpoint:

pic.twitter.com/3rnFUhza5P

— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) August 16, 2022

One mortal lock from the PA main: Fetterman’s social media staff will be capable of title their very own value. (I believe the primary perform of their good work has been to maintain the Beltway press occupied, in order that they haven’t gone into “pull the wings off flies” mode whereas Fetterman recovered. However that’s by no means neglible.)

WY: “From Cheney good friend to foe, Harriet Hageman takes command of Wyoming race animated by Trump” [Politics]. “‘I do know Wyoming. I really like Wyoming. I’m Wyoming,’ Hageman tells audiences as she travels throughout her state, getting into the closing days of a bitter Republican duel in one of many highest-profile congressional races within the nation. ‘I’m going to reclaim Wyoming’s lone congressional seat from that Virginian who at present holds it,’ Hageman likes to say, casting apart the Cheney household’s deep roots within the state and suggesting the three-term congresswoman is extra at residence within the Washington suburbs. As of late, indicators of hassle for Cheney are straightforward to identify right here in Wyoming. Hageman holds a commanding lead within the last weekend of a main election that stands as yet one more reminder of the Republican Get together’s evolution within the period of Donald Trump.

A College of Wyoming ballot launched this week discovered that Cheney is trailing Hageman by 29 factors. But one query looming over the Republican main is what number of Democrats and independents will change events and vote for Cheney, which even her supporters acknowledge is her solely probability to remain aggressive. ‘If it’s a giant Republican vote, there aren’t sufficient Democrats to vary it, even when all of us crossed over,’ former Wyoming Gov. Mike Sullivan mentioned in an interview Friday, noting that he’s among the many Democrats who’ve briefly switched events to assist Cheney. ‘Out of honor and respect for her management, I forged my vote her approach.’” • Cheney will do effective. I’m nonetheless betting Cheney-Zelensky would be the new Joe and Mika in 2024.

2024

“5 US States Will Determine If the 2024 Election Can Be Stolen” [Bloomberg]. “Trump and his loyalists are supporting individuals who deny the outcomes of the 2020 election for governor in 5 key states this fall, greater than sufficient to tilt an in depth 2024 presidential race away from the duly elected winner. Tight races this November in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and a potential Republican win in Pennsylvania, will decide who’s accountable for making election selections in states the place the White Home is received or misplaced. In all 5 of those states, Trump and his backers tried to overturn the outcomes.” • Presumably the Democrats are giving their all to win these states….

“Donald Trump’s subsequent transfer” [Unherd]. “However what has confused liberals for the entire of the Trump period is that nearly each mortal authorized arrow they’ve shot at him has had the alternative of its meant impact. They haven’t even hobbled him. They’ve solely ever enlarged the Trump story, creating new choices for him, extra devoted supporters, and an ever-grander battlefield. Most instantly, the FBI search — the ‘assault’ in Trump phrases — has turn out to be for Trump’s household, internal circle, and MAGA-aligned candidates, a prod to get him to declare his presidential run. It’s the persistent state of even the closest Trumpers to know no extra about what he’ll or received’t do or when than anybody else — ‘the king of optionality,’ mentioned one aide just lately, with each admiration and annoyance. Certainly, to their frustration, Trump has reverted to his lengthy historical past of toying with presidential runs. Maybe, most truthfully, he has informed numerous aides he desires to place off an announcement for so long as potential as a result of he doesn’t wish to work as onerous as he’d must with an instantaneous declaration. (Trump’s elementary laziness has by no means obtained its rightful due as a political consideration.)” • “Anybody who’s each intelligent and lazy is certified for the best management duties, as a result of he possesses the psychological readability and energy of nerve needed for troublesome selections.” —Kurt Freiherr von Hammerstein-Equord

“Editorial: Why would an ex-president who doesn’t learn need packing containers of paperwork at his residence?” [St Louis Dispatch]. • These paperwork aren’t for studying. They’re for buying and selling.

WV: “‘Shocked and disheartened’: How coal nation is reacting to Manchin’s local weather deal” [The Hill]. “Coal nation” will not be coal companies! And this tidbit: “[I]t’s not clear whether or not deep-red West Virginia will embrace Manchin’s local weather deal, provided that his recognition soared across the time that he informed Democrats he couldn’t assist the $2 trillion Construct Again Higher Act. From the primary quarter of 2021 to 2022, Manchin’s approval score shot up 17 factors to 57 %, the most important enhance amongst all senators over that interval, in accordance with Morning Seek the advice of. Practically 7 in 10 West Virginia Republicans expressed assist for the Democratic senator as he railed in opposition to his personal occasion’s spending package deal.”

Republican Funhouse

Tulsi Gabbard eviscerates Kamala Harris:

Here is the alternate between Gabbard and Kamala through the 2020 Dem main debate that many imagine was a key consider destroying Harris’ marketing campaign earlier than one vote was forged. Tulsi uncovered the large hole between Harris’ sanctimony and the truth of her workpic.twitter.com/XhBObmZBfl

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 6, 2022

Fairly a expertise.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in reality, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Trump Legacy

“30 Issues Donald Trump Did as President You Would possibly Have Missed” [Politico]. “Many People will keep in mind President Donald Trump’s presidency as a four-yearlong storm of tweets, rallies and on-air rants that led to a mob riot and historic second impeachment. However there was extra to the Trump presidency than attention-hogging political drama and battle; usually unnoticed, Trump and his administration really did achieve altering among the methods Washington works. From imposing a ban on Chinese language-made drones to rolling again guidelines on sexual harassment, from cracking down on robocalls to letting states legalize marijuana, Trump modified some key areas of federal coverage in ways in which might have lasting impression nicely after he’s gone.” • Omitted: The CARES Act really lowered poverty, Operation Warp Velocity, and no warfare with Russsia or China (nor Venezuela. although granted, Greedo was allowed to make a half-assed try).

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Hybrid Conference: What Wouldn’t it Take?” [Socialist Majority]. On this yr’s nationwide conference, by one who organized the final one. On the finish: “My recommendation is at all times: don’t let good be the enemy of the nice. If we can’t have hybrid, which will simply be. However the NPC ought to create a prioritization listing of what’s most essential to must make a good dedication. Selections aren’t at all times straightforward, however management requires it.” • The Nationwide Political Committee (NPC) is a a sixteen-person physique which capabilities because the board of administrators of DSA. For some definition of “capabilities”?

“The Medical Disaster that Lastly Satisfied Republicans in North Carolina to Broaden Medicaid” [Politico]. “A lot of the counties within the state that has the best charges of uninsured residents are rural ones, in accordance with the North Carolina Rural Middle. Over time, Democrats and Republicans in these areas have come to acknowledge that full Medicaid growth would supply insurance coverage to individuals working in low-paying jobs akin to development and quick meals, and assist hold their struggling hospitals open. Final yr, 5 rural county commissions and the Jap Band of Cherokee Indians handed resolutions supporting Medicaid growth. Dale Wiggins, a Republican commissioner in Kevin Corbin’s district, helped garner that assist. ‘The truth that one among my neighbors can’t afford to go to the physician, that’s asinine,’ Wiggins informed me final fall. ‘If we will spend all this cash on international support, we will make sure that we’ve a wholesome inhabitants.’” • If we may cross out the previous “international support” (minuscule) trope, and write in “The Blob” (ginormous), we would get someplace…

#COVID19

• I give them Sociopath of the Day Awards. They clamor for extra!

Right here’s an interview with Cheikh Niang. Clearly, Sierra Leone and Mali are critical nations, in contrast to our personal.

• Ho hum, one other convention, one other superspreading occasion:

• Do all of them use the identical PR agency? Are they bots?

(Discover the assorted synonyms for “delicate.” I ponder when CVS goes to come back out with a easy, at-home mind harm check. After repeated infections, there’ll be a market!

• Finally, a constructive suggestion:

• Maskstravaganza:

Readers could have famous I assist common masks mandates, however oppose vaccine mandates (persuade individuals, say I. Lead. Do your jobs).

• Maskstravaganza:

Joe, Rochelle, good job.

• CR packing containers within the wild:

If you happen to missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most essential, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we’ve.

Case Rely

Case rely for the US:

Massive story is California.

Instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~ 102,600. As we speak, it’s ~106,500 and 106,500 * 6 = a Biden line at 639,000 per day. That’s reasonably a number of instances per day, when you consider it. (Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. No less than we’ve affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. Nonetheless, I’m not seeing the quantity of anecdotes I did on the Twitter. What are readers experiencing?

Regional case rely for 4 weeks:

The South:

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

Encouraging on Georgia and North Carolina. Apparently, South Carolina’s instances have been present in a drawer in spite of everything.

The West:

A
Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, August 14:

-0.3%.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Some blue in flyover. Some orange in Maine, yellow in Nevada. Enhancing!

NOT UPDATED Speedy Riser information, by county (CDC), August 10:

I’m nearly able to say “All is quiet.” Boy howdy, does that really feel bizarre. I suppose that if instances are certainly stage, it’s possible there can be few fast risers.

Earlier Speedy Riser information:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), August 10:

Unstable. What’s up with the Northeast?

Lambert right here: When the minimize the frequency of those reviews, they mentioned the reviews would come out Wednesday and Friday. Ah nicely. Get pleasure from performing your weekend private danger assessments with out present information.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), July 30:

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), July 23 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 transferring alongside properly. (Similar information, however a format I like higher, and I want CDC would cease altering the format randomly.)

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), August 10:

For grins, August 8:

Lambert: I added gray. Gray, not on the legend at backside proper, is “No current information.” How is there no current information for New York Metropolis, a serious worldwide hub and already the epicenter of at the least one surge? How is there none for upstate New York, which solely just lately was stuffed with rapid-riser counties? The identical with West Virginia, Michigan, and Oregon. If I have been the paranoid kind, I’d theorize that CDC moved in on the one correct information supply we’ve obtained, in an effort to corrupt and destroy it.

Deaths

Loss of life price (Our World in Information):

Lambert right here: If in reality the drop in instances is actual, as CDC appears to imagine, we should always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.

Complete: 1,062,770 – 1,061,346 = 1424 (365 * 1424 = 519,760; in the present day’s LivingWith™ quantity. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are dangerous). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

• Alert reader Deschain asks: “Is it simply me or do COVID deaths appear to be a cup-and-handle formation?” I don’t know. Readers?

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins in the US tumbled 9.6 % month-over-month to an annualized price of 1.446 million items in July of 2022, the bottom since February of 2021 and nicely under market expectations of 1.54 million. The housing sector has been cooling down amid hovering costs of supplies and rising mortgage charges.” • Nicely, that ought to assist with the homeless scenario.

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Manufacturing in the US elevated 3.9 % year-on-year in July of 2022, the smallest annual acquire since January, and following a downwardly revised 4 % rise in June. Manufacturing manufacturing rose 3.2 %, mining 7.9 % and utilities 2.2 %.”

Manufacturing: “United States Capability Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capability utilization in the US elevated 0.4 share factors to 80.3% in July of 2022, barely above forecasts of 80.1% and 0.7 share factors above its long-run (1972–2021) common. Capability utilization for manufacturing elevated 0.5 share factors to 79.8%, 1.6 share factors above its long-run common.”

The Bezzle: “Andreessen Horowitz Backs WeWork Co-Founder Adam Neumann’s Actual-Property Startup Stream” [Wall Street Journal]. • Commentary:

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 56 Greed (earlier shut: 54 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 49 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 16 at 12:01 PM EDT. Mr. Market crusing on Darkish Brandon? Apparently so!

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. However it simply can’t cross the essential psychological barrier of 190. As a substitute, it falls again.

Poetry Nook

“This be the curse: Philip Larkin’s large downside” [The Spectator]. “I’ve been listening to of Larkin’s penis at intervals for a lot of my grownup life. The primary time was 30 years in the past; the newest this week. In all instances, my informants had it from his first biographer, Andrew Movement, who had been informed by Larkin’s tailor that the poet’s penis was abnormally giant, obliging him to change the minimize of his trouser legs. As a good friend of Larkin’s, Movement was additionally capable of affirm this hearsay from an adjoining stall of a males’s urinal… [I propose] that this piece of data is so acutely related to Larkin’s life and work that it must be enshrined in Coles Notes, handed out to secondary faculty youngsters as a part of their poetry pack. Maybe a statue in Poets’ Nook. As a result of as soon as the sniggering stopped, college students would discover it a helpful useful resource in multiple approach. Firstly, it brings gentle into corners of the poetry which can be in any other case obscure. Secondly, it challenges the dangerous and false perception, a lot promoted in on-line pornography, {that a} very giant penis is what makes a boy fashionable with the women. For lots of males, this accident of genetics is a life-ruining affliction. Larkin fell into this class.” • (!!)

The Gallery

The model jogs my memory of a New Yorker cartoon, again when the New Yorker wasn’t a grim tour of the PMC hive thoughts:

(To be truthful, the Biden article above is excellent. Now and again….)

The Conservatory

A self-indulgent return to my roots:

(The songwriter, Jesse Fuller.)

Zeitgeist Watch

“About one-in-five teenagers go to or use YouTube ‘nearly continually’” [Pew Research]. • Helpful chart:

“My Mother’s on FaceBook.”

Class Warfare

“Why Black Marxism, Why Now?” [Boston Review]. “[B]ecause neither Marx nor Engels thought-about the colonies and their plantations central to trendy capitalist processes, class struggles throughout the slave regime or peasant rebellions throughout the colonial order have been ignored or dismissed as underdeveloped or peripheral—particularly since they regarded nothing just like the secular radical humanism of 1848 or 1789. Cedric’s level is that Marx and Engels missed the importance of revolt in the remainder of the world, particularly by non-Western peoples who made up the overwhelming majority of the world’s unfree and nonindustrial labor power. Unfree laborers in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and the islands of the ocean have been producing the lion’s share of surplus worth for a world system of racial capitalism, however the ideological supply of their revolts was not the mode of manufacturing. Africans kidnapped and drawn into this technique have been ripped from ‘superstructures’ with radically completely different beliefs, moralities, cosmologies, metaphysics, and mental traditions. Robinson observes.” • A good, very reasonable critique. Fascinating!

Information of the Wired

“Discovering the medieval thoughts” [Times Literary Supplement]. The deck: “The case for a socially embedded self.” “The medieval self, [Barbara Newman] suggests, was inextricable from its connection to others: on this interval “the essence of personhood is the capability to be permeated by different selves, different individuals, with out being fractured by them”. At a time when our personal bodily porousness is obvious – a lethal virus has proven simply how weak our insides are to everybody else’s, and mitigation efforts have made us really feel extra solitary and atomized than ever earlier than – a ebook on how individuals of the previous considered themselves in relation to others may be of explicit curiosity.” • Hmm.

“How I Hacked my Automotive” [Programming with Style]. Some gentle studying on your teenager. Greatest sentence, maybe: “Seems the encryption key in that script is the primary AES 128bit CBC instance key listed within the NIST doc SP800-38A.” “No, it may well’t be.”• However it’s, it’s. That is how we write software program.

When your teenager’s executed with the automotive, they will do that:

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From j. appleseed:

j. appleseed writes: “Nearly to move as much as your neck of the woods on vacation (Spherical Pond close to Damariscotta), however I noticed these beautiful bracket fungi above Cranberry Pond in Sunderland, Mass. Probably Hemlock Varnish Shelf aka Hemlock Reishi, genus Ganoderma? Maybe some educated reader can affirm…” The background is just a little blown out, however the composition saves it. Readers?

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