By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Affected person readers, I’m afraid I haven’t completely caught up with the information over the weekend. Extra tomorrow, hopefully. –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Giant Wren-Babbler, Pahang Nationwide Park, Malaysia. I’m imagining a Monty Python sketch for the “LNS Catalog Quantity….” voice-over…
Politics
Lambert right here: One reader prompt altering these quotes; I don’t suppose it’s a nasty thought, however I want to consider it. I don’t need to be too doomy — we’re not wanting stock in that division — however I don’t need to go all chipped and Pollyanna-esque, both.
“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“That they had realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord
“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson
Biden Administration
“Prime Democrats are blasting President Joe Biden’s acknowledged intention to promote F-16 fighter jets to Turkey” [Politico]. • Whole deal with the midterms, clearly. Good to see it.
2022
* * * One thing to sit up for!
2024
“Profitable: An Interview with Christopher Rufo” (interview) [IM—1776]. Your entire piece is nicely value a learn, particularly for any Democrats who need to see how a critical political occasion features, earlier than it’s too late. This caught my eye: “Mark Granza: Getting mother and father to unite with a view to obtain political objectives is an uncommon technique. The place did you get that concept? Christopher Rufo: It occurred, once more, by chance. I did a sequence of studies on [Critical Race Theory (CRT)] in schooling that sparked lots of dialogue after which I began noticing these unimaginable clips circulating on social media of fogeys talking it in school board conferences. It was completely spontaneous firstly. Then I put collectively a Crucial Race Idea Briefing E-book and labored on mannequin insurance policies, which gave individuals the language they wanted to succeed and a template for policymaking at state legislatures. The key to good activism shouldn’t be mass, however leverage. The narratives about CRT sparked an immense public response and politicians, who’re all the time wanting on the depth of voter sentiment, began to ship legal guidelines that protected their constituents and guarded households from indoctrination. The GOP then adopted a sensible body — ‘parental rights,’ ‘the mother and father’ occasion’ — that created a set of insurance policies and connotations that could be very interesting to households. In the latest generic poll polling, mother and father with kids within the residence help Republicans by a 28-point margin. It is a political sea change. It drove the success of Glenn Youngkin and college selection initiatives throughout the nation. The affect is simple.” • Hoo boy.
“Veer, and Now” [Brian Beutler]. “There’s a trope amongst extremely partisan Democrats that individuals who complain concerning the lifelessness of the occasion’s leaders are all the time shouting “do one thing!” at them with out ever specifying what. I attempt fairly laborious on this area and elsewhere to be clear about what I feel would work higher than the established order, however I additionally need to get up right here for the idea of simply showing to do stuff. It’s silly, and it was the supply of lots of clownishness and shedding courtroom fights and hooliganism, however Donald Trump was downright hyperactive about pretending to do stuff, and I feel it helped him masks the reality of a failed presidency. We’d all fairly fairly sniff ‘that isn’t authorized’ or ‘he can’t try this.’ And often we have been proper. More often than not nothing got here of it; generally he managed to mow down the guardrails and get his approach on doubtful authority. However the level was much less about governing than conveying a way of motion and management, and I feel it goes a good distance towards explaining why he held on to Republican voters so nicely and managed to extend his vote share regardless of principally wrecking the nation.” • Beutler ought to veer from his aghastitude. Neither the CARES Act (“cash in your pocket”), which was superior in each option to Obama’s response to the Nice Monetary Disaster, nor Operation Warp Pace can go below the heading of “wrecking the nation.” Nor cannot going to struggle with Russia. Biden squandered all that, making him a worse President than Trump.
“Democrats dealing with a Donald Trump conundrum heading into 2024” [AlterNet]. To cost Trump, or not: “‘Via the efforts of the Home January 6 committee, robust proof has emerged of a number of critical crimes, dedicated by President Trump, in addition to his attorneys, different aides, and supporters—all geared toward overturning the results of the 2020 election,’ [Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia] mentioned. He later added, ‘Though this proof has not been subjected to cross-examination, challenged by opposing witnesses, or examined in a trial, it quantities to a really compelling proof of doubtless criminality. And but it’s not in any respect clear that Biden’s Justice Division has gotten the memo.’” • Holy Lord. Whose job is it to get the memo to Garland?
“5 under-the-radar Democrats who may run for president in 2024” [The Hill]. Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Stacey Abrams (“She’s going to need to win a race first”), Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Mitch Landrieu. Weak, weak bench. Why not simply run Liz Cheney and have accomplished with it?
“Ready (and Ready) for an Adams Doctrine” [New York Magazine]. “What we’re seeing is one thing fairly completely different from mayoralties of latest reminiscence — a politics that’s principally public efficiency with a mayor who makes information extra for what he says and the way he seems than for what his administration is definitely doing…. As an administration official put it, “Generally working right here can really feel like Jurassic Park, and he’s the T. rex and goes to maintain on testing the fences till he breaks by means of. He wants any person who can whisper in his ear, ‘Mr. Mayor, I’m sorry, however you might be out of your fucking thoughts proper now.’” • Remind you of anybody? A politician who fairly lately achieved surprising success?
Democrats en Déshabillé
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * Auto-kinbaku-bi as soon as extra:
Sure, the occasion deliberately recruited individuals it knew would oppose the principle components of its agenda. https://t.co/1kx7GujTSA
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) July 2, 2022
Making assumptions on “its agenda,” however let that move.
Realignment and Legitimacy
The category construction and “doing your personal analysis”:
However we’re not individually able to doing that at scale in a sophisticated society. To critically evaluation scientific findings takes time. And each degree of abstraction depends on belief in some authority or skilled. You’d spend 25 hours a day evaluating sources and truth discovering.
— thebluecheese (@thebleucheese) July 2, 2022
And every degree of abstraction is peopled/represented/managed by (worry of precarity-driven) rent-seekers and gatekeepers. (That’s the tendency; you’ve got some courses of authorities who’re open and sincere. I’d urge they’re distinctive. Truly, that’s a pleasant dichotomy: hegemonic v. distinctive. Droplet goons are an instance of the previous; aerosol group of the latter. So let’s imagine of the PMC as a category. There are distinctive and hegemonic subclasses. (Notice than an distinctive subclass wouldn’t be a group of remarkable people, however a set whose social relations allow people to change into distinctive.)
#COVID19
Don’t make me offer you one other award, Bob!
Lengthy, insane thread on all the maths that the chairman of the division of medication on the College of California at San Francisco thinks individuals may need to do to individually resolve whether or not their particular person danger tolerance requires carrying masks proper now. https://t.co/wDM2kpL2ci
— midnucas #FueraLUMA 🇵🇷 (@midnucas) February 20, 2022
A layered technique works (1):
Air audits, Hepa Filters and CO2 Monitor have been initially costly, particularly whereas we have been continuously in lockdowns and restrictions. However it’s already paying off now as we nonetheless haven’t had any staff being contaminated with the virus at work pic.twitter.com/WpkpdZPr47
— Apricot Tree Cafe (@ApricotTreeCaf1) July 2, 2022
A layered technique works (2):
10 days post-wedding, we’ve had zero new COVID instances amongst all of the attendees (approx. 150 individuals.) Was it the masking? Was it the Corsi-Rosenthal containers? Was it a 99.9% vaccinated and boosted attendee listing? It was all the above. We prioritized security AND had a good time. Fin.
— Lavanya Krishnan, MS, MPH (@l_krishnan) July 3, 2022
The marriage business is big, and weddings are up this 12 months. How lengthy earlier than some intelligent companies begin advertising and marketing “Covid-free Weddings”?
My Twitter listing shouldn’t be a random pattern. However on the pro-mask facet, opinion appears to be hardening (which I view as a actually wholesome factor):
Maskstravaganza (1):
1/ We’ve *by no means* had a devoted public well being marketing campaign on carrying a masks to guard your self & others. It’s really fairly a rare omission. Which suggests both the Authorities doesn’t need individuals carrying masks or doesn’t care in the event that they don’t.
— Celia Inexperienced (@1CeliaGreen) July 3, 2022
As I maintain saying: “Democidal elites” is a parsimonious clarification.
Maskstravaganza (2):
Please watch Nicolas Smit’s OSHA testimony. @PPEtoheros
And we marvel why well being care staff are leaving in droves. https://t.co/Hm1GvDQYDo
— Denise Dewald, MD 🗽 (@denise_dewald) May 10, 2022
Maskstravaganza (3):
An unmasked lady within the checkout line subsequent to me simply loudly mentioned to the unmasked cashier, when requested for ID, “Don’t contact it although. I’ll maintain it for you. I’ve COVID.”
— The Risky Mermaid (@OhNoSheTwitnt) July 2, 2022
Maskstravaganza (4):
So really @delta I don’t “respect the selection about masking” made by my neighbor on DL466 on Sunday, as a result of his maskless coughing and spluttering over 6 hours has had a predictable consequence. He selected for me and I don’t recognize that he was capable of. pic.twitter.com/1lu6eMBeMg
— Andrew McGowan (@Praxeas) June 30, 2022
Maskstravaganza (5):
I don’t care that it’s “allowed.”
Relaxation assured that if you happen to knowingly get on a aircraft/ practice/ go to the mall/ dine indoors and so forth with an energetic COVID an infection— esp with out an N95 or elastomeric—you’re a psychopath.
— Dana Parish (@danaparish) July 3, 2022
As a result of freedom:
What’s worse than cholera? Burdening companies with the taxes wanted to fund building of this unproven ‘sewer’ expertise. No thanks sir, I’ll take my consuming water the best way God meant it: Naturally enchanced with feces. #FecalUrgencyofNormal#1854CholeraEpidemic
— Neoliberal John Snow (@NeoliberalSnow) July 3, 2022
That’s hardly truthful. You’d drink your feces-enhanced water after conducting a private danger evaluation. Individuals are so cynical nowadays!
Should you missed it, right here’s a submit on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) think about most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers now we have.
Case rely for america:
I feel we’re seeing information points from an extended weekend, therefore the drop. Beneath the hood the BA.4/BA.5 are making up a better and better proportion of instances. There was a bizarre, plateau-like “fiddling and diddling” stage earlier than the Omicron explosion, too. This conjuncture feels the identical. Do not forget that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~108,000. In the present day, it’s ~102,400, and 108,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 614,400. At the least now we have affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so each day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.
• “The BA.5 COVID Surge Is Right here” [New York Magazine]. “The latest wave of COVID infections and reinfections, fueled by extra transmissible subvariants of the Omicron pressure together with BA.4 and BA.5, continues to develop throughout the U.S. As numerous People collect over the July 4 vacation weekend, it’s fully attainable that there are extra new each day infections taking place within the nation than at another level within the pandemic apart from the Omicron wave.” • Joe, Rochelle, Ashish, good job.
Regional case rely:
The South:
So the nationwide drop is usually from the South, and the South is from Texas. Which is bizarre, as a result of within the speedy riser chart, Texas is reddening.
From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker:
2.4%. (I’m leaving the company emblem on as a slap to and examine on the goons at CDC.)
NOT UPDATED Wastewater information, regional (Biobot Analytics), June 29:
Wastewater information (CDC), Jun 14, 2022 – Jun 28, 2022:
This chart works a bit like speedy riser counties: “This metric reveals whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a website are presently larger or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar website. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the website; 100% means ranges are the best they’ve been on the website.” So, there’s a bunch of purple dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so meaning “ranges are the best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.
NOT UPDATED Variant information, regional (Biobot), June 8:
Outdated in comparison with Walgreens (under) however nonetheless displaying doubling conduct.
NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), June 15:
The present Walgreens variant chart is dated June 11, which is earlier than June 15, and BA.4 has gone down. So I’ll examine once more tomorrow.
Variant information, nationwide (CDC), July 2:
Hoo boy, with the caveat that these creeps at CDC have now made their “Nowcast” mannequin obligatory (therefore the large soar in BA.4/BA.5 from the final time they managed to replace this website). Doubling conduct transferring alongside fairly briskly.
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does however it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].
From CDC Group Profile Studies (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:
West coast improves, Texas and the South don’t, Illinois improves.
The earlier launch:
Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:
Establishment.
Hospitalization (CDC Group Profile):
Very unstable, however much more yellow and orange because the earlier replace a number of days in the past.
Prepare.
Dying charge (Our World in Knowledge):
Whole: 1,043,372 1,042,678. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured items jumped 1.6% month-over-month in Could of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in April and beating market forecasts of a 0.5% acquire, in an indication demand for merchandise remained string [sic].”
The Bezzle: “Celsius Clients Are Shedding Hope for Their Locked-Up Crypto” [Wall Street Journal]. “It has been three weeks since crypto lender Celsius Community LLC took the drastic step of halting clients’ withdrawals. Many individuals are beginning to marvel if they’ll ever see their cash once more. Alla Driksne says she has six figures value of bitcoin and ethereum—her life financial savings—tied up in a Celsius account. On June 12, a Sunday, the corporate mentioned it had paused buyer withdrawals, saying it wanted “to stabilize liquidity and operations.” Ms. Driksne couldn’t sleep for 2 days. ‘,’ mentioned Ms. Driksne, who’s 34 and creates on-line cooking programs.” • 🙁
In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 22 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 24 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 26 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 5 at 1:22 PM EDT.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 189. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Now it has.
The Conservatory
I’m a bit amazed to see a model of Dylan and the Band’s Basement Tapes on YouTube. Right here’s considered one of my favourite up-tempo Grateful lifeless tunes, which breaks off after 43 seconds as a result of it’s genuine:
Jogs my memory a little bit of the Flatlanders besides, nicely, The Band.
The Gallery
Shot:
Olympia
Edouard Manet 1863
Musee d’Orsay pic.twitter.com/5gKwyzOgJF— Olga Tuleninova 🦋 (@olgatuleninova) July 14, 2020
Chaser:
Three Quarters of Olympia Minus the Servant, 1982 #americanart #neoexpressionism https://t.co/odIr8nFi3t pic.twitter.com/TUmWiFa9KK
— Jean-Michel Basquiat (@artistbasquiat) July 2, 2022
Groves of Academe
If you’re school-adjacent, you may look into this:
2) Key factors: #COVIDisAirborne
⁰Using a smoke machine, a bunch of dads studied airflow patterns within the faculty’s 5 school rooms and administration areas
⁰Goal was creating clean-air school rooms in school to minimise the danger of COVID-19 transmissionhttps://t.co/aQGqIQkqdD— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 1, 2022
Class Warfare
“Ep 5: What’s Forward for Labor?” (podcast) [Adolph Reed, Class Matters]. “Adolph Reed Jr. talks with Sara Nelson, President of the Affiliation of Flight Attendants/CWA and APWU President Mark Dimondstein about what’s forward for Labor on this second that holds out each promise and peril. Employee organizing efforts are underway throughout the nation together with at Amazon and Starbucks. Public help for unions is a 57-year excessive – with polling at 68% in favor.” • I’m very happy to see that Reed has a podcast/
Information of the Wired
Kill it with fireplace:
AI-created episodes of Fawlty Towers, by https://t.co/Kani0qEh4P. pic.twitter.com/b6jfl0PMI3
— John Hoare (@mumoss) July 2, 2022
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