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2:00PM Water Cooler 6/22/2022 | bare capitalism

by Index Investing News
June 22, 2022
in Economy
Reading Time: 26 mins read
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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, I’m going to undergo and beef this up a little bit. Covid protection plus 1/6 plus is clogging my filters, and so I’m chugging alongside a bit extra slowly than standard. –lambert UPDATE All carried out!

Chook Track of the Day

Roberts’s Warbler, Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Chatter, chatter!

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

“The January sixth Rip-off” [Margaret Kimberley, Black Agenda Report]. “There actually isn’t quite a bit to say about what occurred on January 6, 2021. Trump riled up his supporters to both cease the electoral school certification or simply to yank the institution’s chain. There was no risk to what most People consider as democracy and no path for a authorities to be overthrown even when that’s what the mob wished to realize. Largely they have been motivated by racism, a white mob within the basic American sense with none excessive minded thought concerning the electoral course of. They didn’t wish to imagine that their man misplaced, in order that they broke in and trashed the place. However that straightforward rationalization isn’t very helpful to individuals with ulterior motives who wish to win whereas additionally stabbing voters within the again. .” • Bingo.

UPDATE “Trump had a direct function in plan to put in faux electors. Key takeaways from the fourth Jan. 6 listening to” [CNBC]. “Witnesses testified underneath oath to Trump’s direct involvement in efforts to reverse elections in key states by both decertifying Biden’s win or sending an alternate slate of pretend pro-Trump electors to forged ballots within the Electoral Faculty….. Arizona Republican Home Speaker Rusty Bowers mentioned he refused to cede to Trump and Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani once they requested him to carry an official committee listening to on the Arizona capitol to prop up their claims of election fraud. Bowers mentioned they wished the listening to to justify arguments to take away and substitute the electors. ‘I didn’t really feel that the proof, granted in its absence, merited a listening to, and I didn’t wish to be used as a pawn,’ Bowers mentioned. He recalled telling them: ‘You’re asking me to do one thing in opposition to my oath, and I cannot break my oath.’ Bowers additionally mentioned Trump lawyer John Eastman requested him in a separate name to carry a vote to decertify Arizona’s electors. ‘Simply do it and let the courts kind it out,’ Bowers recalled Eastman as saying. Bowers mentioned he replied: ‘You’re asking me to do one thing that’s by no means been carried out in historical past — the historical past of america — and I’m going to place my state by means of that with out adequate proof? And that’s going to be adequate with me?’ … RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel advised congressional investigators that Trump, throughout a cellphone dialog, ‘turned the decision over to Mr. Eastman, who then proceeded to speak concerning the significance of the RNC serving to the marketing campaign collect these contingent electors, in case any of the authorized challenges that have been ongoing modified the results of any of the states,’ in accordance with a replay of a part of her taped deposition.” So — lack of cross-examination, because of Republican stupidity, apart — a variant of faithless electors.

UPDATE “Trump’s open confession will loom massive at right now’s Jan. 6 listening to” [WaPo]. “Trump and coup-blueprint creator John Eastman pressured Pence to and certify electors for Trump. Individually, Eastman and others round Trump noticed the fake-elector scheme as a option to manufacture doubt round which electors have been the actual ones…. This may additionally have given Pence a pretext to delay the rely. The whole lot else flowed from this: Trump and his advisers pressured the Justice Division to manufacture an aura that the election was fraudulent, to create that pretext. Trump instantly pressed the Republican secretary of state in Georgia to “discover” votes for a similar function.” And: “Given all this, Trump’s open telegraphing of intent to rerun his coup plot ought to body how we perceive Tuesday’s listening to. Let’s hope 10 Senate Republicans take it this fashion, even when they don’t say so publicly. If that’s the case, they’ve the choice to assist revise the Electoral Depend Act so such a scheme will likely be a lot more durable to tug off, by requiring Congress to rely the slate of electors deemed professional by the courts.” • Properly… To begin with, like all of this, the timeline appears fairly rickety. How lengthy would the “delay” be? Nothing suggests days, not to mention weeks. (I suppose at this level we might wheel in an enchantment to the Supreme Court docket by means of Ginny Thomas, which provides one other layer of rickitiness.) Second, that phrase “unlawful” sneaks into “illegally delay.” If that’s an unchallenged interpretation, then why does the Electoral Depend Act want revision? I hate all this, however I’m additionally undecided how a lot is bent attorneys racking up the billable hours + cosplay, and the way a lot is actual.

UPDATE “CNN picks worst time to bail on ‘the Large Lie’” [Will Bunch, Philadelphia Inquirer]. “[New CNN boss Chris Licht] mentioned his concern with ‘the Large Lie’ was that he noticed the time period as ‘partisan; and related to Democrats, one thing he desires to keep away from. As reported by veteran media critic Dylan Byers at Puck, Licht is aiming to ‘discourage spectacle and alarmism’ on the cable community.” • Perhaps as a substitute of “the Large Lie” let’s imagine “a Massive Lie.” That method, we keep away from the inflammatory Hitler affiliation and, higher but, we’ve got a bucket we will throw RussiaGate into (arguably extra important, because it constructed an ideological/demonization basis for warfare with a nuclear energy, even when solely by proxy).

Biden Administration

“Senators hail ‘bipartisan breakthrough’ on gun security laws” [The Hill]. “Senate negotiators on Tuesday reached a long-awaited deal on a bipartisan gun security invoice to take firearms away from harmful individuals and supply billions of {dollars} in new psychological well being funding. The laws represents a uncommon second of bipartisan settlement on the charged problems with gun violence and gun management, breaking almost 30 years of stalemate on these points. The invoice doesn’t ban assault-style rifles or high-capacity magazines or considerably broaden background-check necessities for gun purchases, reforms that have been prime Democratic priorities a decade in the past. Nevertheless it does give states extra assets to take weapons away from harmful people, even when they haven’t been convicted of against the law, and gives billions of {dollars} in funding for psychological well being remedy.” • Anyone who might smuggle a type of Armalite issues previous the metallic detectors in a stadium might whack tons of, not mere tens. I suppose it’s solely a matter of time, and possibly then we’d get some respectable laws.

“Joe Manchin indicators he’s open to increase Obamacare assist — however seeks to limit richer households from qualifying” [Business Insider]. “Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia signaled he’s open to extending enhanced subsidies underneath the Reasonably priced Care Act, a transfer that might assist Democrats avert an enormous political risk within the November midterms from thousands and thousands of individuals studying about spiking month-to-month premiums solely weeks earlier than casting ballots…. “The primary factor right here is the means-testing,” he mentioned in a short interview on Wednesday night. “We ought to be serving to the individuals who really want it probably the most and are actually having the toughest time.’” • That’s our Democrats — means-testing an already means-tested program.

UPDATE The political financial system of Covid in accordance with Ashish Jha:

Shoutout to @wsbgnl for getting some White Home monetary disclosure types, which assist paint a fuller image of the political financial system of covid response (amongst different issues). pic.twitter.com/wpv5uvJFZK

— Justin Feldman (@jfeldman_epi) June 22, 2022

UPDATE “College meal waivers expire in 9 days. After axing them, Congress could attempt to save them” [NPR]. “A bipartisan group of 4 lawmakers on Tuesday introduced a invoice that might lengthen the college meal waivers which were a lifeline for faculties and households through the pandemic…. Lawmakers failed to increase these waivers another tutorial college yr once they have been excluded from the price range signed by President Joe Biden in March, leading to a scramble for directors and fogeys nationwide. College leaders and fogeys had weeks to arrange for summer season meal packages with out the waivers that allowed extra summer season meal websites. In addition they needed to stand up to hurry on how fall meals would perform with the return of free and reduced-price meal functions and continued provide chain challenges that meant some meals weren’t at all times obtainable. Now, Sens. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., and John Boozman, R-Ark., and Reps. Bobby Scott, D-Va., and Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., have launched the Hold Children Fed Act with the objective of passing the invoice out of each chambers and to Biden’s desk earlier than the waivers expire on June 30.”

2022

* * *

UPDATE “Biden’s optimism collides with mounting political challenges” [Associated Press]. “Democrats are going to carry onto the Home after November’s midterm elections. They may decide up as many as 4 seats within the Senate, increasing their majority and overcoming inner dissent that has helped stifle their agenda. Because the challenges confronting President Joe Biden intensify, his predictions of a rosy political future for the Democratic Occasion are rising bolder. The assessments, delivered in speeches, fundraisers and conversations with pals and allies, appear at odds with a rustic that he acknowledged this week was ‘actually, actually down,’ burdened by a pandemic, surging fuel costs and spiking inflation. Biden’s hopeful outlook tracks with a way of optimism that has coursed by means of his almost five-decade profession and was on the middle of his 2020 presidential marketing campaign, which he mentioned was constructed round restoring the ‘soul of America.’ In a prolonged Oval Workplace interview with The Related Press on Thursday, Biden mentioned a part of his job as president is to ‘be assured.’ ‘As a result of I’m assured,’ he mentioned. ‘We’re higher positioned than any nation on the earth to personal the second quarter of the twenty first century. That’s not hyperbole. That’s a truth.’” • If true, the Democrats had higher begin making the case. The 1/6 hearings and framing defeat in Ukraine as a victory over [makes warding sign] Putin received’t do the trick.

PA: To this point, Fetterman’s variant of the “entrance porch” technique (“I’ll hit the marketing campaign path when the docs approve”) appears to be doing OK:

Pennsylvania Senate Race:

John Fetterman 46%

Dr. Oz 37%

Fetterman is pulling forward by operating sturdy in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh AND by polling method higher than Democrats normally do in rural counties the place he has gone out of his option to marketing campaign.

(USA At the moment/Suffolk Ballot) pic.twitter.com/kifwJQc3Mc

— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) June 22, 2022

I’m wondering if Fetterman might deke annoyed Physician Oz into doing armchair prognosis….

UPDATE PA: “Why is nobody speaking about Doug Mastriano’s plan to destroy public training in Pa.?” [Inquirer]. The deck: “GOP’s radical Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate would finish property taxes, slash per-pupil spending, and enhance spiritual faculties and homeschooling.”

UPDATE TX: “Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar declared winner in Texas recount” [Associated Press]. “A recount in Texas affirmed Democrat U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar because the winner Tuesday of his major race in opposition to progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, who had trailed by fewer than 200 votes following a runoff in Might.” • Nancy, good job.

2024

“DeSantis escalates feud with White Home” [The Hill]. “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is escalating his feud with the White Home over the COVID-19 response as he positions himself for a potential presidential marketing campaign in 2024…. ‘Medical doctors can get it. Hospitals can get it. However there’s not going to be any state packages which are going to be making an attempt to get COVID jabs to infants and toddlers and newborns,’ DeSantis mentioned to applause from the gang readily available. ‘That’s not the place we’re gonna be using our assets.’” • We’ll see.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Trump praises ‘highly effective’ Texas GOP after rejection of Biden win” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump applauded the Texas Republican Occasion’s proposed platform that declares President Biden ‘was not legitimately elected’ on Tuesday. ‘Take a look at the Nice State of Texas and their highly effective Republican Occasion Platform on the 2020 Presidential Election Fraud,’ Trump wrote on Reality Social, the social media platform he based as an alternative choice to Twitter. ‘After a lot analysis and examine, they disavow the nationwide outcome for President.’” Curiously: “Texas GOP communications director James Wesolek advised The Hill on Monday that the decision the get together handed will not be formally a part of the platform and handed by a voice vote of delegates. Every delegate wanted to vote in favor or in opposition to 275 proposals for the platform, and the outcomes are anticipated to be counted this week.”

Trump Legacy

“Donald Trump Probably No Longer in Contempt of Court docket in New York Probe, State AG Says” [Bloomberg]. “Former President Donald Trump, who was fined for failing to adjust to a New York subpoena in a probe of his actual property firm, could lastly be in compliance with a court docket order, in accordance with the state’s prime legislation enforcement officer. Affidavits filed by Trump workers outlining record-retention insurance policies at his enterprise are possible adequate to resolve a contempt-of-court discovering in opposition to the previous president that resulted in $110,000 in fines, a lawyer for New York Lawyer Common Letitia James mentioned in a letter to a decide on Tuesday.” • However the partitions have been closing in!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“I’m Not Sexist, Different Voters Are” [Liz Lenz, Men Yell at Me]. “[In 2017, when Regina Bateson, a former diplomat and academic, ran for office] round reasoning from voters who preferred her and wished to vote for her however have been fearful concerning the sexism that she’d face in a basic election. It was a irritating logic, one which wouldn’t be swayed by fact or actualities. Girls did win. They might win…. When Bateson misplaced, she determined to review the infuriating logic of voters, which she termed “strategic discrimination.” Her ensuing analysis provides perception into the sexist logic of electability and a greater framework for assessing elected officers.” Extra:

LL: One thing that jumped out at me in your analysis was that individuals overestimate how racist and sexist different individuals actually are.

RB: Sure. Massively. You do see this in different fields and professions and points of society, particularly when there have been patterns of discrimination up to now, individuals tend to carry on to their form of information from the previous about how others assume and the way others behave.

And it virtually looks as if persons are updating their very own preferences and their very own views extra rapidly than they’re capable of replace their beliefs about what different individuals assume. Within the paper, I quoted some psychologists and different analysis on how individuals get caught within the prejudices of the previous and perpetuate them as a result of they imagine that they’re nonetheless true. Even when different individuals’s views have truly modified.

It’s our beliefs about different individuals’s beliefs that maintain us again typically.

Appears like a Keynesian magnificence contest.

“The Billionaire Household Pushing Artificial Intercourse Identities (SSI)” [The Tablet]. “One of the highly effective but unremarked-upon drivers of our present wars over definitions of gender is a concerted push by members of one of many richest households in america to transition People from a dimorphic definition of intercourse to the broad acceptance and propagation of artificial intercourse identities (SSI).” Watch out for all enterprises that require new acronyms. However, it’s at all times good to comply with the cash, and particularly household workplace cash. Extra: “Over the previous decade, the Pritzkers of Illinois, who helped put Barack Obama within the White Home and embody amongst their quantity former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, present Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and philanthropist Jennifer Pritzker, seem to have used a household philanthropic equipment to drive an ideology and follow of disembodiment into our medical, authorized, cultural, and academic establishments.” • Hmm. Tons and plenty of element on the funding, although. And the Pritzkers will little question closely fund the Democrat Occasion in 2022 and 2024, too, so maintain on to your hats.

#COVID19

I’m however a humble tape-watcher, and I’m perplexed concerning the present state of play. Case knowledge is exhibiting the fiddling-and-diddling habits attribute of a peak. Nevertheless, nothing I hear in anecdotal case knowledge tells me there’s any aid. Hospitalization knowledge (trailing) is easing (and so the hospital-centric public well being institution in all probability thinks Covid is completed). Positivity knowledge (main) has been fiddling and diddling because it too does at peaks. Then once more, waste-water knowledge (main) is barely downThe wild card is variants BA.4/5 (and I assumed we have been speculated to be giving names to those issues). All of the variant sources I’ve say BA.4/5 are up, however they differ as to how a lot and the place, and the information is 2 weeks behind (hat tip, CDC; who might have recognized we’d want to trace variant knowledge?). I’m reminded of the “stairstep” (see the Case rely chart under: I muttered about this on the time) that marked the Delta/Omicron transition, simply earlier than Omicron’s superb take-off. Maybe a BA.4/5 transition will exhibit the identical habits. OTOH, I may very well be projecting patterns into clouds.

* * *

“Air flow is essential, however till not too long ago it took a backseat to different covid measures” [WaPo]. Quite, it was tied up, gagged, and stuffed within the trunk by droplet goons at CDC, WHO, and within the public well being institution typically (see right here and right here amongst many; NC readers know the story effectively). The article does comprise a wonderful timeline of official folly, but additionally incorporates some howlers: “For greater than two years, scientists and researchers have recognized the coronavirus usually infects individuals by means of ultra-tiny particles that hand around in the air — not simply the larger droplets that masks are supposed to guard in opposition to.” N95 masks defend in opposition to aerosols. That’s why individuals ought to put on them. Extra: “Nevertheless it wasn’t till March that the White Home pivoted its technique to stress air flow measures, along with face coverings, as a major methodology of slowing the unfold of the virus.” First, if there’s any such stress, it’s not seen (the White Home Workplace of Science and Expertise has no clout, sadly, and there’s no funding for air flow. And naturally the Biden Administration has systematically destroyed masking as a non-pharmaceutical intervention). Second, masks aren’t “face coverings” as a result of — hear me out — they don’t cowl the entire face; not, for instance, the home windows of the soul, the eyes. Extra: “However spreading the message of covid unfold by means of aerosol droplets was particularly difficult.” And conflating aerosols and droplets with “aerosol droplets” doesn’t assist, does it? Extra, this tweet:

Involved about your indoor air high quality? Moveable air cleaners might be efficient – @ShellyMBoulder & @j_g_allen have a useful gizmo for choosing the right sized unit: https://t.co/kzWZQJ1YoV

Listed below are two low-cost choices you can also make with a field fan and furnace filters. #COVID19 https://t.co/f4bV8NdXZe

— Krystal Pollitt (@PollittKrystal) September 14, 2020

Inform me you don’t know what a Corsi-Rosenthal field is with out telling me you don’t know what a Corsi-Rosenthal field. (After all, each Corsi and Rosenthal labored at state faculties, not Yale. Maybe that’s it [bangs head on desk].

• Maskstravaganza: Obama fashions masking. Watch all the way in which to finish:

🤣🤣pic.twitter.com/jxfIqfWvmT

— Revolutionary Blackout Community🥋 (@SocialistMMA) June 22, 2022

#CovidIsAirborne, and spreads by respiration, speaking, singing, and shouting. Jerk.

• Maskstravaganza:

Knew I bookmarked this for a reasonhttps://t.co/5xwUaV7emQ

— Bevan M (@motbevron) June 22, 2022

I’m not the one one whose again enamel itch when listening to “Let’s see your smile!” Reassuring!

• “Gentle”:

Oh and CDC steerage would clearly be to stay with the zombies. Bites are delicate. Attempt to put on garments and never contact their rotting flesh. Sext solely.

— Jonathan Mesiano-Crookston 🌬️🔅#COVIDisAirborne (@jmcrookston) June 22, 2022

• Extra reassurance:

With solely a small variety of individuals in an space, social actions resembling outside meetups might be comparatively secure, particularly if everyone seems to be already taking precautions and/or agrees to be examined beforehand.

The identical rules apply to play dates for young children. 2/

— CovidMeetups.com (@covidmeetupscom) June 22, 2022

An excellent factor!

* * *

For those who missed it, right here’s a submit on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we’ve got.

* * *

I can’t discover a case rely chart that integrates regional and nationwide subtotals, so we’re that a lot stupider. I assumed the New York Occasions had the nicest knowledge presentationL

Case rely for america:

The totals are or much less degree, however underneath the hood the BA.4/5 are making up a larger and larger proportion of instances. Do not forget that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the actual degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. Yesterday, the rely was ~96,000. At the moment, it’s 100,500, and 100,500 * 6 = a Biden line at 603,000. Not less than we’ve got affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

• “Coronavirus: French face Covid-19 upsurge, different Europeans see enhance” [South China Morning Post]. “France is dealing with a brand new wave of Covid-19 infections fuelled by new variants of the illness, French vaccination chief Alain Fischer mentioned on Wednesday, as every day new instances reached an virtually two-month peak the day earlier than at greater than 95,000. Talking on France 2 tv, he mentioned there was little question there was as soon as once more an upsurge of the pandemic within the nation, including he was personally in favour of reinstating obligatory face masks carrying on public transport… Different European international locations, particularly Portugal, are additionally seeing a rise, due two new Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, which, in accordance with the European Centre for Illness Prevention and Management, are more likely to grow to be dominant within the area. The variants don’t seem to hold the next danger of extreme illness than different types of Omicron however as they’re considerably extra infectious than the latter, it might result in a rise in hospitalisations and deaths, the ECDC mentioned.” • Good factor we saved testing at worldwide airports. Oh, wait….

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker:

0.0%. (I’m leaving the company brand on as a slap to and test on the goons at CDC.)

NOT UPDATED Wastewater knowledge, regional (Biobot Analytics), June 15:

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), June 22:

I assumed I’d give CDC’s wastewaster web page one other shot, and right here it’s. I don’t wish to be cranky about this, however you’d assume that the world’s premier public well being company would be capable of hold its web site up and operating constantly. How am I speculated to do my private danger evaluation?

• So I need to depend on this tweet from the CDC:

Wastewater can be utilized to trace #COVID19 in communities. A brand new chart on COVID Knowledge Tracker exhibits how virus ranges in wastewater have modified over time at wastewater websites throughout america. Over half had rising ranges in Might. See the information: https://t.co/i5L5PFTlyM. pic.twitter.com/k2caL3Uq36

— CDC (@CDCgov) June 10, 2022

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, regional (Biobot), June 15:

Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), June 15:

In 18 days, BA.4/5 has gone from 18 days, 9.66 to twenty-eight.47 (and this isn’t in accordance with some sorta mannequin, like CDC’s NowCast, which provides 35%). Good doubling habits, implying BA.4/5 ought to be fortunately dominant simply in time for the journey weekend of July 4, good job everybody.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), June 4:

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is.

NOT UPDATED From CDC Neighborhood Profile Experiences (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:

Establishment.

The earlier launch:

NOTE I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

West Coast, and Midwest are all purple. Increasingly more orange (“substantial”) on the East Coast. Nice Plains speckled with yellow and blue.

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization (CDC Neighborhood Profile):

Very risky.

Dying charge (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 1,038,900 1,038,385. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line.

• Optimism:

The sample seems to have modified. Almost three months since ultra-contagious Omicron variants launched a springtime resurgence of instances, People are dying from Covid at a charge near the bottom of the pandemic. https://t.co/9Aro6EAF0K

— NYT Science (@NYTScience) June 20, 2022

Let’s wait till the reinfections — the reinfections that the Biden Administration has constructed into the system by means of its Let ‘Er Rip coverage — start to kick in.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right now.

* * *

Provide Chain: It is a low cost shot on the younger particular person:

Morning Bid: Inflation psychology https://t.co/a2yZ0XrdGF pic.twitter.com/45e0nmfgtM

— Reuters (@Reuters) June 22, 2022

Who created the scenario? Who arrange the provision chain? Who profited? For some motive, they don’t seem to be within the image in any respect.

* * *

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 23 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 19 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 20 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jun 22 at 2:16 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

The 420

Combining one’s pleasures:

Unknown Artist, Feminine Courtier On a Rampart Smoking a Hookah, Whereas Watching a Flight of Birds, early nineteenth century #unknownartist #harvardartmuseums https://t.co/DGA7m2qBK2 pic.twitter.com/lyezc2cLZs

— HAM: Work (Bot) (@harvard_artbot) June 22, 2022

E book Nook

“Do you are taking us for a gang of brainless lizards?” [Letters of Note]. • Rejection letters. T.S. Eliot’s rejection letter to George Orwell is clarifying.

Zeitgeist Watch

Nice metaphor…. For one thing:

When i delivered papers early morning within the snow, i would stroll backwards to random peoples frontdoors then comply with my steps again out. Think about peoples faces once they depart for work & assume that somebody’s already left their home.

— Fesshole 🧻 (@fesshole) June 22, 2022

“Purchase Now, Pay Later Is Exploding in Reputation as Consultants Warn of Overspending Dangers” [Bloomberg]. • One other metaphor…..

Class Warfare

“What the Proper Doesn’t Get Concerning the Labor Left” [Sohrab Ahmari, Compact]. Properly price a learn, although a bit dyspeptic on masks as a cultural marker. “America’s class construction isn’t all that difficult. Those that want to map its contours can be higher served by inspecting issues like labor markets and capital flows than important principle. Roughly talking, there’s the highest 0.1 %, the biggest house owners of capital; the highest 1.1 %, composed of Wall Avenue executives and different excessive managers; and the highest 5 to 10 % of pros who service the property of the primary two teams. The underside 90 %, in the meantime, contains blue-collar staff, nonmanagerial staff, non-college-educated staff, and downwardly cellular college-educated ones. That final group is the goal of a lot right-wing ire, as a result of its members usually share the cultural views of the higher 10 %. Certainly, those that work in media, data, and training usually function the frontline enforcers of elite ideology. Even so, the wages of that final cohort have remained stagnant for about 30 years, all of the extra painful for a technology introduced as much as imagine {that a} school diploma is the pathway to a steady life. By any severe materials measure, nobody within the backside 90 % might be counted part of the ruling class. To recommend in any other case is to stretch the notion past recognition. But a lot of what passes for “class evaluation” on the New Proper is premised on the notion that the college-educated precariat is within the driver’s seat of the nationwide financial system, of politics and tradition.” • Observe that he principally trashes the left (and right here I don’t imply liberals) utilizing (facile) cultural tropes, however his criticism of the correct is strategic.

“The maddening saga of how an Alzheimer’s ‘cabal’ thwarted progress towards a remedy for many years” [STAT]. From 2019, however extremely reminscent of the droplet goons: ” Essentially the most influential researchers have lengthy believed so dogmatically in a single principle of Alzheimer’s that they systematically thwarted different approaches. A number of scientists described those that managed the Alzheimer’s agenda as ‘a cabal.’ In additional than two dozen interviews, scientists whose concepts fell exterior the dogma recounted how, for many years, believers within the dominant speculation suppressed analysis on different concepts: They influenced what research bought printed in prime journals, which scientists bought funded, who bought tenure, and who bought talking slots at reputation-buffing scientific conferences. This stifling of competing concepts, say a rising variety of students, is a giant motive why there is no such thing as a remedy for Alzheimer’s. (The 4 authorized medicine haven’t any impact on the illness, offering solely a short lived reminiscence enhance.)” • So there’s [genuflects] Science, after which there’s truly current science.

Information of the Wired

“Tear out your garden, test. Drought-tolerant vegetation, test. Subsequent up: recycled water” [Los Angeles Times]. “‘If we’re going to adapt to local weather change, we have to acknowledge the impacts on the area, which implies longer dry cycles and excessive rain occasions, so when it rains, it would rain extra intensely,’ mentioned Melanie Winter, founder and director of the River Challenge, a nonprofit devoted to defending and restoring the Los Angeles River watershed. ‘We’re mainly aridification and flood.’ At a minimal, this implies we ought to be putting in gutters on our roofs, permeable walks and driveways round our houses and storage tanks in our yards — not barrels, as a result of they’re not sufficiently big to carry the water that pours off a roof in a single rainfall, Winter mentioned.” • Attention-grabbing. Do any readers have initiatives like this underway?

* * *

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From ChiGal:

ChiGal writes: “Snake within the backyard: taken throughout a stroll on Wooded Isle in Jackson Park, the place the purple crane within the background is the one inform of how shut the sprawling development web site for Obama’s monument to his personal ego is….”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the not too long ago concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you possibly can e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how you can ship a test. Thanks!

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