https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
Usually it’s the best indicator of upcoming recession,6-12months after its inverted,that would put recession around Q2-Q4 2023.
In last 25 years it was inverted 2 times. 2000 dotcom and 2008 financial crisis.Few months later we had recession and market bottom in mid of recession.
It was also inverted in late 2019 and in march 2020 we had big crash(partially was beacuse of covid but we also printed our way out of this).
Your opinion?
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